Transport as a Factor in the Achievement of the EU Goals to Combat Climate Changes and to Reduce Greenhouse Gases Emissions

One of the priorities of the “Europe 2020” strategy is to combat climate change and to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The key elements for the climate policy framework for the European Commission for 2020 are as follows: (1) reducing GHG emissions by 40% in comparison to the level in 1990; (2) increasing the share of renewable energy in the use of final energy to 27%; (3) increasing the energetic efficiency by 27%. Those are ambitious goals which will require the Member States to increase their efforts in all the sectors of the economy. In 2015 the GHG emissions in the EU fell by 23.7% in comparison to the level in 1990. All the sectors, apart from the transport sector contributed to the emission reduction in the years 1990–2015. The transport emission increased by 13.3% in that period in comparison to the year 1990, which is particularly worrisome. This is important because the fuels use in the transport sector contributed to approximately 20% of all the GHG emissions in the EU in 2015. The article presents the factors and the tools which significantly affect the achievement of the goals set in the Green Paper: a 2030 framework for energy and climate policies, which concern the transport sector and the indicated guidelines and instruments supporting them. The road transport will be extensively analysed as it is the transport mode which shows an extraordinary growth tendency and it is a vital barrier in the achievement of the goals set in the area of “Climate change and GHG emission reduction”. The article presents the results of the research, which show the impact of various identified tools on the achievement of the three priorities of the climate policy. The multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used, in which the dependent variables were: the GHG emission levels, the use of renewable energy and the energy Barbara Pawłowska, Michał Suchanek 80 intensity of transport. The results were calculated based on the data from 28 Member States and the model was verified.

However, because of the expected strong growth in transport demand, this is far from sufficient to stop the growth in emissions, let alone reversing the trend [EEA, 2018]. CO 2 emissions are growing in almost all sectors but in the road transport sector, both freight and passenger, the situation is worse. The growth of more than 70% between 2015 and 2050 is predicted.
According to the EEA's report [EEA, 2017] in 2015, the transport sector contributed 25.8% of the total EU-28 greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). This figure decreases to 21% if international aviation and maritime emissions are excluded. Emissions from transport in 2015 were 23% above the 1990 levels despite a decline between 2008 and 2013. Emissions increased by almost 2% compared with 2014. International aviation experienced the largest percentage increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the 1990 levels (+105%), followed by international shipping (+22%) and road transport (+19%). Road transport contributes about one-fifth of the EU's total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the main greenhouse gas. While these emissions fell by 3.3% in 2012, they are still 20.5% higher than in 1990.
Emissions need to fall by around two thirds by 2050, compared with the 1990 levels, in order to meet the long-term 60% greenhouse gas emission reduction target as set out in the Transport White Paper [2011].
The goal of the article is to assess the trend of the changes in the aforementioned indicators and also to determine whether the use of various instruments have had an effect on the dynamics of these changes.

The European Union's Climate and Energy Policy Framework for 2030 and 2050
The European Union has established a clear framework for the policy regarding the energy and climate by 2020. This framework integrates various political goals, such as a decrease in the greenhouse gas emissions, securing the energy supplies and promoting growth and competitiveness of the EU. In 2010, the European Commission proposed the Europe 2020 Strategy which was launched as the EU's strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth [EC, 2010].
This strategy has begun a new chapter in the history of the EU. It has substituted the Lisbon strategy which was applied since 2010, but which proved to be inappropriate for the challenges of modern Europe [Pawłowska, 2013]. The 2007 crisis showed the structural weaknesses of the European economy and, in many areas, cancelled the results of many years of effort towards economic and social growth.
The main aim of the Europe 2020 Strategy was to improve the EU's competitiveness while maintaining its social market economy model and improving significantly its resource efficiency. As an effect of the Strategy a new economy should arise. An economy based on knowledge, low-emission, promoting environmentally friendly technologies, resource efficient, creating a new "green" working environment while also caring about social integrity [Pawłowska, 2015].
The three priorities set in the strategy focus on intelligent, sustainable and socially inclusive growth. These goals are related and create a coherent picture of the European social economy in the 21 st century. Seven main initiatives were attributed to the priorities. They are shown in Figure 1.  The analysis of the priorities and key initiatives lead to a conclusion that the activities helpful in the achievement of the first pillar goals are: 'Digital agenda for Europe' , 'Innovation Union' and 'Youth on the move' . Macroeconomic studies which have been carried out for years show that in the developed countries, 80% of the economic growth can be attributed to innovations. Rational resource use is one of the next crucial goals regarding the environment protection and economic growth. An efficient use of resources increases the competitiveness and allows creating new jobs while protecting natural resources. Therefore, it strongly correlates with the EU's climate and energy policy. Currently, the use of energy has a significant effect on the competitiveness of the European economy. A transition into a more efficient resource use and a low-emission economy are the keys to the fulfilment of the second pillar goals. The third pillar focuses on combating poverty and promoting initiatives for new jobs creation and unemployment decrease.
A transition into a low-emission, resource-efficient economy requires vast changes in the areas of: technology, energy sources, management strategies, finances and social behaviour. The Paris climate agreement leads to possibilities of economic transformation and growth, an increase in employment and fulfilment of the sustainable growth goals. [OJ L 282/2016].
The main EU goals regarding the climate and energy have been declared in the climate-energy package by 2020 [EC, 2008] and also in the climate-energy policy by 2030 [Green Paper, 2013].These goals are meant to determine the directions of the EU economic transformation by 2050 according to the plan of transitioning into a low-emission economy. The 2020 package is a set of binding legislation to ensure the EU meets its climate and energy targets for the year 2020. The package sets three key targets: • 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from the 1990 levels); • 20% of the EU's energy from renewables; • 20% improvement in energy efficiency.
The European Commission presented the policy framework for the climate and energy by 2030 in the Green Paper [2013].The new goals and instruments for increasing the competitiveness and security are presented in the document. They are also supposed to balance the Union's economy and energy system. These goals include a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a higher consumption of energy from renewable sources. New management systems and new efficiency indicators are presented as well.
The EU needs a radical change to outline a credible, long-term vision for the future of renewable energy, based on the existing instruments. Europe has two main goals in terms of energy technologies: reducing the cost of clean energy and achieving a leading position by the European industry in the fast-growing low-carbon technology sector. The Union has set energy and climate targets that should be met by 2020, 2030 and 2050. Table 1 presents these goals by 2050. The amount of energy in interconnections -i.e. the percentage of electricity generated in the EU and sent to other EU countries 15% Source: the authors' own study based on the EU's strategic documents.
The framework for 2030 must be sufficiently ambitious to ensure that the EU is on track to meet the longer-term climate objectives in 2050. It should take into account the changes which have happened in all areas of economic and social life and it must identify how best to maximise synergies and deal with trade-offs between the objectives of competitiveness, security of energy supply and sustainability.
The framework should also take into account the longer-term perspective which the Commission laid out in 2011 in the Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 [EC, 2011a], the Energy Roadmap 2050 [EC, 2011b], and the Transport White Paper [2011]. The 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change aims at making Europe more climate resilient [EC, 2013]. It promotes adaptation actions across the EU, ensuring that adaptation considerations are addressed in all the relevant EU policies (mainstreaming), promoting greater coordination, coherence and information-sharing. The main elements of the Strategy concerning transport activity are: • increasing the efficiency of the transport system by making the most of digital technologies; • smart pricing and further encouraging the shift to lower emission transport modes; • speeding up the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for transport, such as advanced biofuels, renewable electricity and renewable synthetic fuels and removing obstacles to the electrification of transport; • moving towards zero-emission vehicles; while further improvements to the internal combustion engine will be needed, Europe needs to accelerate the transition towards low-and zero-emission vehicles. The document presented, among others: • an obligation to further reduce the greenhouse gas emissions (lowering them by 40% in comparison to the 1990 level by 2030); • a goal stating that at least 27% of the used energy should come from renewable sources; the Member States will be allowed to set their individual goals; • a tendency to improve the energetic efficiency due to potential changes in the directive on energetic efficiency; • a reform of the Union's emission certificates trade system, so that it includes the market stability reserve; • key indicators (regarding the energy prices, the energy source diversification, the intersystem connections between the Member States and the technology development), which allow measuring the advancements in creating a more competitive, secure and sustainable energy system; • a new framework for the reporting system used by the Member States based on the national plans, which are coordinated and reviewed at the level of the EU.

Review of the EU's climate policy activities' effects
The analysis of the three aforementioned areas: the transport GHG emissions, the consumption of the final energy in the transport sector and the share of alternative fuels in the transport sectors leads to a number of conclusions. Transportation is responsible for nearly a fourth of all the GHG emissions in Europe and is the main cause for the decline in the air quality in the cities, which is a severe public health danger. The road transport itself is responsible for nearly a fifth of all the pollution in the EU.
In 2015, road transport was responsible for 72.9% of total greenhouse gas emissions from transport (including aviation and international shipping). Of these emissions, 44.5% were contributed by passenger cars, while 18.9% came from heavy-duty vehicles and buses ( Figure 2). The attention should be put on fact that as a result of a significant rise in passenger-kilometre and tonne-kilometre demand, greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation more than doubled from the 1990 levels (105%), followed by international shipping (22%) and road transport (19%). Emissions from transport (including aviation but excluding international shipping) in 2015 were 23% above the 1990 levels despite a decline between 2008 and 2013. Emissions increased by almost 2% compared with 2014 [TERM002/EEA, 2018].
To gain the EU's target, emissions need to fall by around two thirds by 2050, compared with the 1990 levels, in order to meet the long-term 60% greenhouse gas emission reduction target as set out in the 2011 Transport White Paper. Figure 3presents the changes observed in the Member Statesin the period 1990-2015.
The transport GHG emissions vary significantly across different EU countries. The highest increase in emissions (an increase of over 100%) happened in the Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland and Slovenia. In five Member States the situation has improved, including a nearly a 14% drop in emissions in Lithuania and a 0.25% drop in Finland. This tendency shows the need for a stronger support for the technology and driving changes in the road transport.
In the area of the share of alternative fuels in the energy consumption the EU Member States have national targets detailing how they propose to comply with the overall target of a 10% share of renewable energy supply in the transport sector by 2020. In this point it should be pointed out that only biofuels complying with the sustainability criteria under the EU Renewable Energy Directive [2009/28/EC] are to be counted towards this target. The most recent data shows that in 2016, 7.1% of the energy consumed in transport is renewable, compared with 6.6% the year before and 1.4% in 2004, if only those biofuels that met the sustainability criteria are included. The EU Member States are required to achieve a 10% share in renewable energy by 2020, for all transport options. At the EU level, the share of energy from renewable sources in transport stood at 7.1% in 2016, Figure 4presents the share of renewable energy in transport in the Member States in the period 2013-2016.
As it can be noticed in 2016, Sweden (30.3%) and Austria (10.6%) were the only two Member States to reach the target of using 10% of renewable fuel energy for transport. While France (8.9%) and Finland (8.4%) were relatively close to achieving the target, most of the other EU member states were around the half-way point to meeting the 2020 objective. With a use of less than 3% of energy from renewables in transport, Estonia (0.4%), Croatia (1.3%), Greece (1.4%) and Slovenia (1.6%), followed by Cyprus (2.7%) and Latvia (2.8%) were the furthest from the 10% target. It is worth underlining that Sweden and Spain had the largest increases in their share of transport fuel from renewable energy sources between 2015 and 2016, while the use of this type of energy fell significantly in Finland. Summing up, in general the proportion of renewable energy used by the transport sector is growing but remains small. Several reasons lie behind the slow uptake of renewable fuels across the EU, including: (1) market uncertainty caused by delays in limiting the risk of greenhouse gas emissions due to indirect land use change; (2) relatively high abatement costs related to biofuels; and (3) slow progress in the deployment of second-generation biofuels.
The advancements in the fulfilment of the Union energetic efficiency goals in transport will be presented based on the report from  If the declining trend observed since 2005 continues in the coming years, the EU should still be on track to achieve the 2020 target both for primary and final energy consumption. There is a need to note that the average rate of the decrease in primary energy consumption/ final energy consumption in the 2005-2015 period is higher than the rate of the linear decrease from 2005 to the 2020 target.
An increase in the economic activity usually leads to an increase in energy consumption. This was counteracted by energy savings, which in 2015 and 2016 were not high enough to balance out the effects of an increased economic activity.
In The data presented in Figure 6shows an energy efficiency improvement of 1%/year between 2000 and 2015, as measured by the ODEX, which combines the energy efficiency trends of the different modes of transport. Greater energy efficiency progress was achieved for both cars and airplanes than in the rest of the sector. A slowdown for trucks and light vehicles has been visible since 2005, with no more efficiency progress since 2007 because of the economic crisis. In 2015, energy savings in transport according to the Odyssey database reached around 50 Mtoe at the EU level: without energy efficiency improvement, the energy consumption would have been higher by 50 Mtoe. A slowdown in energy savings after 2007 is noticed, mainly due to no more progress for goods transport because of the economic recession.

The effect of the transport sector activity on the achievement of the EU's climate and energy policy goals
The goal of the research on the achievement of the EU's climate and energy policy goals is to assess whether the effort which the countries undertake by introducing various pro-ecological instruments is effective. First, the instruments for climate change were identified and divided into two categories: the instruments used to promote non-conventionally fuelled vehicles and the instruments used to reduce the transport demand. Then, the authors analysed how many instruments were introduced by every EU Member State in both categories. Based on the collected data on the number of instruments of the promotion of non-conventionally fuelled vehicles and on the number of instruments of the reduction of the transport demand [Odyssee-Mure, 2018], two dummy variables were constructed: • prom_ven_Syn1 -representing the total number of instruments introduced in order to promote non-conventionally fuelled vehicles; • red_dem_Syn2 -representing the total number of instruments introduced in order to reduce the transport demand. Then, a cluster analysis was performed to identify the groups of countries based on their pro-ecological effort. Cases were grouped into two clusters based on the values of the two dummy variables (Figure 7). The first cluster groups the countries which generated a higher pro-ecological effort in terms of both groups of instruments. The differences in the number of the promotion of non-conventionally fuelled vehicles is not that high (on average 9 for the first cluster, 3 for the other cluster), but the difference in the number of instruments introduced in order to reduce the transport demand is significant (on average 59 for the first cluster and only 13 for the other cluster). Then, a multivariate analysis of variance was performed to verify if a higher pro-ecological effort of a group of countries provided better results. These results were represented by three variables: • SH_AV_DYN (representing the average dynamics of the share of renewable energy in the use of final energy dynamics of a given country in the analysed period); • FEC_AV_DYN (representing the average dynamics of energetic efficiency dynamics of a given country in the analysed period); • GHG_AV_DYN (representing the average dynamics of the greenhouse gas emissions dynamics of a given country in the analysed period). The factor which was taken into account as the basis of the MANOVA was the GROUP variable which represented to which group the country belonged, based on the results of the cluster analysis (Figure 8).
The Wilks Lambda parameter resulting from the MANOVA has a level of significance p = 0.556, which means that none of the analysed variables had a statistically significantly different average value across the analysed groups. This result is confirmed by the analysis of the multivariate parameters of the MANOVA (Table 2).  These results suggest that the pro-ecological effort which the countries generate, represented by the number of instruments which they use, does not affect the dynamics of the greenhouse gas emissions, energetic efficiency and the share of renewable energy in the use of final energy. This could mean that the instruments which are used are ineffective or that they have radically different effectiveness in different countries, thus, making the sheer number of instruments used an ineffective predictor.
It is worth mentioning that all the basic conditions of the use of MANOVA are met as represented by the Levene test results for the homogeneity of the variance (Table 3) and by the analysis of the normal distribution. Regardless of the effectiveness of the particular measures, a panel data regression model was analysed to predict the tendency of the development of the three factors: the share of renewable energy, the greenhouse gas emissions and the energetic efficiency. First, the Breusch-Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects was performed to determine whether the effects are fixed or random within different countries. The results of the test (significance level lower than 0.05) indicate that the panel regression should be constructed based on the assumption that the dynamics of the three factors are significantly different across different countries and should be treated as a fixed effect (Figure 9). Three panel regression models were generated with the assumption of the fixed effects. The following models show the changes in, appropriately: the share of renewable energy (Figure 10), energetic efficiency ( Figure 11) and greenhouse gas emissions ( Figure 12).

Figure 9. Breusch-Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects
All of the analysed models are statistically significant, proved by the F and t tests for the significance of variables. The panel data models show the following results: • on average, every year the share of renewable energy increases by 0.51%; • every year the energetic efficiency increases as represented by an average decrease of 132.1 units; • on average, every year the greenhouse gas emissions decrease by 412.91 units.  It is worth mentioning that despite the fact that the intensity of the use of various instruments promoting pro-ecological behaviour does not affect the results measured in the form of the three analysed factors, the overall tendency is positive as all the indicators show a trend in the direction called for by the European Union.

Summary
Two separate clusters of the Member States can be identified based on a given country's pro-ecological effort. However, the intensity of the pro-ecological effort measured by the number of instruments used to promote non-conventionally fuelled vehicles and instruments used to reduce the transport demand does not determine the changes in three main indicators of the climate change. This leads to a conclusion that despite the fact that transport is one of the main determinants of the climate change, the instruments used to promote more ecological transport and to reduce transport demand are not effective enough. Regardless of that, the panel regression models allow predicting that the overall changes of the climate are going in the direction indicated by the policy framework. Further research is needed into the efficiency and effectiveness of the transport policy instruments used. It is also important to examine the mutual impact of the instruments in various categories and their interaction with the achieved results. It should be stressed that the usage of package-mix would allow obtaining a synergistic effect in achieving the goals, especially if the tools of the different category of instruments are used.
As we look at Poland, according to country profile conducted within the Odyssee-Mure project [Odyssee-Mure, 2018], we can note that final energy consumption in Poland increased by 0.8%/year from 2000 reaching 64 Mtoe in 2015. The biggest consumer was the household sector, whose share amounted to 32% in 2015, followed by transport with 27% share. The highest consumption in transport was achieved by cars (representing 47% of the sector's consumption in 2015) followed by trucks (40% share in 2015 in comparison with 32% in 2000). The share of air transport remained unchanged (4%). Bus transport represented 7% of the consumption and 0.3% for motorcycles in 2015. Transport energy consumption has almost doubled since 2000 mainly driven by the effect of the growth in traffic (for passengers and goods) and the modal shift from public vehicles to private cars and from trains to roads in the case of goods. Energy savings (4.1 Mtoe) counterbalanced partially the effect of these two factors. Energy efficiency in Poland improved by 2.2%/year over the period 2000-2015. Energy efficiency of transport improved by 1.2%/per year until 2010, with an acceleration since (3.3% /year).
When analyzing the measures/instruments used in Poland supporting the climate policy objectives, it should be noted that they mainly focus on the level of national and local authorities. They concern subsidizing solutions that increase energy efficiency (for instance: for energy efficient vehicles or clean vehicles, as well as bio-fueled/electric/LPG/natural gas vehicles) and fiscal instruments that make taxes dependent on the energy efficiency of vehicles. Information/education/training and infrastructure can be mentioned as other categories. As examples of such instruments, "Development of Intelligent Transportation Systems" or "Traffic management system and transport of goods optimization" could be mentioned. In both cases, the programmes aim to reduce final energy consumption. Unfortunately, in the case of Poland, single actions are taken. The lack of a systemic approach reduces the efficiency and effectiveness of these tools.