The effect of uncertainty on capital structure
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Published:
Sep 28, 2023
Keywords:
uncertainty,, target leverage ratio
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Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of uncertainty on the capital structure of public listed companies in Indonesia. This study used asset volatility as a method of measuring uncertainty. The researchers use unbalanced panel data from 2009 to 2019 in order to assess and analyse the effect of uncertainty on the company‘s capital structure. The results of this study indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and the company‘s target leverage.
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Wennie, & Nugroho, V. C. . (2023). The effect of uncertainty on capital structure. Journal of Management and Financial Sciences, (47), 771–86. https://doi.org/10.33119/JMFS.2023.47.5
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References
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10. Brealey, R.A., Myers, S.C. (2003). Principles of corporate finance.
11. Brooke, G.T.F. (2010). Uncertainty, profit and entrepreneurial action: Frank Knight’s contribution reconsidered. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 32(2), pp. 221–235, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837210000179
12. Cao, W., Duan, X., Uysal, V.B. (2013). Does Political Uncertainty Affect Capital Structure Choices? Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 53(9), pp. 1689–1699.
13. Chen, L. (2006). On the Relation between the Market-to-Book Ratio, Growth Opportunity, and Leverage Ratio.
14. Choi, J., Richardson, M. (2016). The volatility of a firm’s assets and the leverage effect. Journal of Financial Economics, 121(2), pp. 254–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.05.009
15. Chow, Y.P., Muhammad, J., Bany-Ariffin, A.N., Cheng, F.F. (2019). The effect of firm-specific and macroeconomic uncertainty on firm leverage, short-term and long-term debt in the Philippines. Jurnal Pengurusan, 56(2019), pp. 133–144, https://doi.org/10.17576/pengurusan-2019-56–12
16. Chung, Y.P., Na, H.S., Smith, R. (2013). How important is capital structure policy to firm survival? Journal of Corporate Finance, 22(1), pp. 83–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2013.04.002
17. Correia, M., Kang, J., Richardson, S. (2017). Asset volatility. Review of Accounting Studies, 23(1), pp. 37–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-017-9431–1
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20. Edward, J.H. (2017). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi leverage pada perusahaan sektor industri agikultur yang terdaftar dI BEI 2007–2015. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Universitas Surabaya, 6(2), pp. 748–760.
21. Fama, E.F., French, K.R. (2002). Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt. Review of Financial Studies, 15(1), pp. 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.1.1
22. Faulkender, M., Petersen, M.A. (2006). Does the source of capital affect capital structure? The Review of Financial Studies, 19(1), pp. 45–79.
23. Flannery, M.J., Rangan, K.P. (2006). Partial adjustment toward target capital structures. Journal of Financial Economics, 79(3), pp. 469–506, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.03.004
24. Frank, M.Z., Goyal, V.K. (2009). Capital structure decisions: which factors are reliably important? 22525.
25. Green, C.J., Murinde, V. (2001). Company financing, vapital structure, and ownership: A survey, and implications for developing economies.
26. Gungoraydinoglu, A., Çolak, G., Öztekin, Ö. (2017). Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns. Journal of Corporate Finance, 44, pp. 167–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.03.007
27. Ha, C.Y., Im, H.J., Kang, Y., Shon, J. (2016). Uncertainty, major investments, and capital structure dynamics. SSRN Electronic Journal, 86(0), https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2732554
28. Hidayat, R.F. (2013). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi struktur modal pada perusahaan manufaktur terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia periode 2007–2011. 2.
29. Huitema, B.E. (2005). Analysis of Covariance. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Educational Research, Measurement, and Evaluation, https://doi.org/10.4135/9781506326139.n40
30. Hwang, J., Sun, Y. (2018). Should we go one step further? An accurate comparison of one-step and two-step procedures in a generalized method of moments framework. Journal of Econometrics, 207(2), pp. 381–405, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.07.006
31. Im, H.J., Kang, Y., Janghoon, S. (2020, Feb). How does uncertainty influence target capital structure? Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101642
32. Izhakian, Y., Yermack, D., Zender, J.F. (2017). Ambiguity and the treadeoff theory of capital structure. Sereal Untuk, 51(1), p. 51.
33. Jory, S.R., Khieu, H.D., Ngo, T.N., Phan, H.V. (2020, Aug). The influence of economic policy uncertainty on corporate trade credit and firm value. Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101671, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101671
34. Julio, B., Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. Journal of Finance, 67(1), pp. 45–83, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.2011.01707.x
35. Khan, M.A., Qin, X., Jebran, K. (2020). Uncertainty and leverage nexus: does trade credit matter? In Eurasian Business Review, 10(3). Springer International Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-020-00159–5
36. Kim, H.-Y. (2018). Statistical notes for clinical researchers: analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Restorative Dentistry & Endodontics, 43(4), pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5395/rde.2018.43.e43
37. Lambrecht, B.M., Myers, S.C. (2017). The dynamics of investment, payout and debt. Review of Financial Studies, 30(11), pp. 3759–3800, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx081
38. Leland, H.E. (1994). Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure. The Journal of Finance, 49(4), pp. 1213–1252, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.1994.tb02452.x
39. Levine, O., Wu, Y. (2019). Asset Volatility and Capital Structure: Evidence from Corporate Mergers. Management Science, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3607
40. M’ng, J.C.P., Rahman, M., Sannacy, S. (2017). The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from public listed companies in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Cogent Economics and Finance, 5(1), pp. 1–34, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1418609
41. Makololo, P., Seetharam, Y. (2020). The effect of economic policy uncertainty and herding on leverage: An examination of the BRICS countries. Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1821482
42. Meckling, W.H., Jensen, M.C. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Human Relations, 72(10), pp. 1671–1696, https://doi.org/10.1177/0018726718812602
43. Memon, P.A., Rus, R.B.M., Ghazali, Z.B. (2015). Firm and macroeconomic determinants of debt: Pakistan evidence. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172(1988), pp. 200–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.355
44. Myers, S.C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp. 147–175.
45. Myers, S.C. (2001). Capital Structure. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(2), pp. 81–102.
46. Nasution, A.A., Siregar, I., Panggabean, R. (2017). The effect of profitability, asset tangibility, corporate tax, non-debt tax shield and inflation upon the financial capital structure of the manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. 36 (Icbmr), pp. 65–74.
47. Orlova, S., Harper, J.T., Sun, L. (2020, Feb). Determinants of capital structure complexity. Journal of Economics and Business, 110, 105905, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105905
48. Panda, B., & Leepsa, N.M. (2017). Agency theory: Review of theory and evidence on problems and perspectives. Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, 10(1), pp. 74–95. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974686217701467
49. Rashid, A. (2013). Risks and financing decisions in the energy sector: An empirical investigation using firm-level data. Energy Policy, 59, pp. 792–799, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.034
50. Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1), pp. 86–136, https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0900900106
51. Schwartz, A,R., Byrne, A,J., Colaninno, A. (2011). Volatility, risk and uncertainty in financial markets, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4419-1474-3.
52. Skoogh, J., Sward, P. (2015). The Impact of Tangible Assets on Capital Structure. Retrieved from: https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/handle/2077/39577/gupea2077395771.pdf?sequence=1
53. Tavakoli, A. (2015, June). Overview of Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) using GLM in SAS. University of South Carolina, Columbia, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4481.5528
54. Ullah, S., Akhtar, P., & Zaefarian, G. (2018, May). Dealing with endogeneity bias: The generalized method of moments (GMM) for panel data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71, pp. 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2017.11.010
55. Velnampy, P.T., Niresh, J.A. (2012, May). The relationship between capital structure&profitability.
56. Wooldridge, J.M. (2016). Introductory Econometrics 6th Edition. In Economica, 42(165), https://doi.org/10.2307/2553001
57. Yildirim, N. (2015). Not leverage but change in leverage matters for firms’ future growth: Evidence from Turkey’s top 1000. International Economic Journal, 29(3), pp. 503–525, https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2015.1065429
58. Zhang, G., Han, J., Pan, Z., Huang, H. (2015). Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China. Economic Systems, 39(3), pp. 439–457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.06.003
2. 2. Arellano, M., Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data:monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), pp. 277–297, https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
3. Arellano, M., Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of errorcomponents models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), pp. 29–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304–4076(94) 01642-D
4. Baum, C.F. (2003). Dynamic panel data estimation. Investment and Liquidity Constraints, pp. 18–45, https://doi.org/10.1007/978–3–322–82010-5_3
5. Beckman, C.M., Haunschild, P.R. (2002). The network learning: Effects of partners ’ of heterogeneity on experience acquisitions corporate. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47(1), pp. 92–124.
6. Beckman, C.M., Haunschild, P.R., Phillips, D.J. (2004). Friends or strangers? Firm-specific uncertainty, market uncertainty, and network partner selection. Organization Science, 15(3), https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1040.0065
7. Bhaduri, S.N. (2002). Determinants of capital structure choice: A study of the Indian corporate sector. Applied Financial Economics, 12(9), pp. 655–665, https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100010017705
8. Bierman, H. (2003). The capital structure decision. Journal of Visual Languages & Computing, 11(3). The Johnson Graduate School of Management. Retrieved from: https://www.mculture.go.th/mculture_th/download/king9/Glossary_about_HM_King_Bhumibol_Adulyadej’s_Funeral.pdf
9. Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(4), pp 153–176, https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-4-30-55
10. Brealey, R.A., Myers, S.C. (2003). Principles of corporate finance.
11. Brooke, G.T.F. (2010). Uncertainty, profit and entrepreneurial action: Frank Knight’s contribution reconsidered. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 32(2), pp. 221–235, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837210000179
12. Cao, W., Duan, X., Uysal, V.B. (2013). Does Political Uncertainty Affect Capital Structure Choices? Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 53(9), pp. 1689–1699.
13. Chen, L. (2006). On the Relation between the Market-to-Book Ratio, Growth Opportunity, and Leverage Ratio.
14. Choi, J., Richardson, M. (2016). The volatility of a firm’s assets and the leverage effect. Journal of Financial Economics, 121(2), pp. 254–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.05.009
15. Chow, Y.P., Muhammad, J., Bany-Ariffin, A.N., Cheng, F.F. (2019). The effect of firm-specific and macroeconomic uncertainty on firm leverage, short-term and long-term debt in the Philippines. Jurnal Pengurusan, 56(2019), pp. 133–144, https://doi.org/10.17576/pengurusan-2019-56–12
16. Chung, Y.P., Na, H.S., Smith, R. (2013). How important is capital structure policy to firm survival? Journal of Corporate Finance, 22(1), pp. 83–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2013.04.002
17. Correia, M., Kang, J., Richardson, S. (2017). Asset volatility. Review of Accounting Studies, 23(1), pp. 37–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-017-9431–1
18. Dudley, E. (2011). Testing Models of Dynamic Trade Off Theory. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1994, pp. 1–46, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1030119
19. Ebrahim, M.S., Girma, S., Shah, M.E., Williams, J. (2014). Dynamic capital structure and political patronage: The case of Malaysia. International Review of Financial Analysis, 31, pp. 117–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.11.004
20. Edward, J.H. (2017). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi leverage pada perusahaan sektor industri agikultur yang terdaftar dI BEI 2007–2015. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Universitas Surabaya, 6(2), pp. 748–760.
21. Fama, E.F., French, K.R. (2002). Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt. Review of Financial Studies, 15(1), pp. 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.1.1
22. Faulkender, M., Petersen, M.A. (2006). Does the source of capital affect capital structure? The Review of Financial Studies, 19(1), pp. 45–79.
23. Flannery, M.J., Rangan, K.P. (2006). Partial adjustment toward target capital structures. Journal of Financial Economics, 79(3), pp. 469–506, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.03.004
24. Frank, M.Z., Goyal, V.K. (2009). Capital structure decisions: which factors are reliably important? 22525.
25. Green, C.J., Murinde, V. (2001). Company financing, vapital structure, and ownership: A survey, and implications for developing economies.
26. Gungoraydinoglu, A., Çolak, G., Öztekin, Ö. (2017). Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns. Journal of Corporate Finance, 44, pp. 167–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.03.007
27. Ha, C.Y., Im, H.J., Kang, Y., Shon, J. (2016). Uncertainty, major investments, and capital structure dynamics. SSRN Electronic Journal, 86(0), https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2732554
28. Hidayat, R.F. (2013). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi struktur modal pada perusahaan manufaktur terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia periode 2007–2011. 2.
29. Huitema, B.E. (2005). Analysis of Covariance. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Educational Research, Measurement, and Evaluation, https://doi.org/10.4135/9781506326139.n40
30. Hwang, J., Sun, Y. (2018). Should we go one step further? An accurate comparison of one-step and two-step procedures in a generalized method of moments framework. Journal of Econometrics, 207(2), pp. 381–405, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.07.006
31. Im, H.J., Kang, Y., Janghoon, S. (2020, Feb). How does uncertainty influence target capital structure? Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101642
32. Izhakian, Y., Yermack, D., Zender, J.F. (2017). Ambiguity and the treadeoff theory of capital structure. Sereal Untuk, 51(1), p. 51.
33. Jory, S.R., Khieu, H.D., Ngo, T.N., Phan, H.V. (2020, Aug). The influence of economic policy uncertainty on corporate trade credit and firm value. Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101671, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101671
34. Julio, B., Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. Journal of Finance, 67(1), pp. 45–83, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.2011.01707.x
35. Khan, M.A., Qin, X., Jebran, K. (2020). Uncertainty and leverage nexus: does trade credit matter? In Eurasian Business Review, 10(3). Springer International Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-020-00159–5
36. Kim, H.-Y. (2018). Statistical notes for clinical researchers: analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Restorative Dentistry & Endodontics, 43(4), pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5395/rde.2018.43.e43
37. Lambrecht, B.M., Myers, S.C. (2017). The dynamics of investment, payout and debt. Review of Financial Studies, 30(11), pp. 3759–3800, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx081
38. Leland, H.E. (1994). Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure. The Journal of Finance, 49(4), pp. 1213–1252, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.1994.tb02452.x
39. Levine, O., Wu, Y. (2019). Asset Volatility and Capital Structure: Evidence from Corporate Mergers. Management Science, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3607
40. M’ng, J.C.P., Rahman, M., Sannacy, S. (2017). The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from public listed companies in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Cogent Economics and Finance, 5(1), pp. 1–34, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1418609
41. Makololo, P., Seetharam, Y. (2020). The effect of economic policy uncertainty and herding on leverage: An examination of the BRICS countries. Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1821482
42. Meckling, W.H., Jensen, M.C. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Human Relations, 72(10), pp. 1671–1696, https://doi.org/10.1177/0018726718812602
43. Memon, P.A., Rus, R.B.M., Ghazali, Z.B. (2015). Firm and macroeconomic determinants of debt: Pakistan evidence. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172(1988), pp. 200–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.355
44. Myers, S.C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp. 147–175.
45. Myers, S.C. (2001). Capital Structure. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(2), pp. 81–102.
46. Nasution, A.A., Siregar, I., Panggabean, R. (2017). The effect of profitability, asset tangibility, corporate tax, non-debt tax shield and inflation upon the financial capital structure of the manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. 36 (Icbmr), pp. 65–74.
47. Orlova, S., Harper, J.T., Sun, L. (2020, Feb). Determinants of capital structure complexity. Journal of Economics and Business, 110, 105905, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105905
48. Panda, B., & Leepsa, N.M. (2017). Agency theory: Review of theory and evidence on problems and perspectives. Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, 10(1), pp. 74–95. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974686217701467
49. Rashid, A. (2013). Risks and financing decisions in the energy sector: An empirical investigation using firm-level data. Energy Policy, 59, pp. 792–799, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.034
50. Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1), pp. 86–136, https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0900900106
51. Schwartz, A,R., Byrne, A,J., Colaninno, A. (2011). Volatility, risk and uncertainty in financial markets, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4419-1474-3.
52. Skoogh, J., Sward, P. (2015). The Impact of Tangible Assets on Capital Structure. Retrieved from: https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/handle/2077/39577/gupea2077395771.pdf?sequence=1
53. Tavakoli, A. (2015, June). Overview of Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) using GLM in SAS. University of South Carolina, Columbia, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4481.5528
54. Ullah, S., Akhtar, P., & Zaefarian, G. (2018, May). Dealing with endogeneity bias: The generalized method of moments (GMM) for panel data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71, pp. 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2017.11.010
55. Velnampy, P.T., Niresh, J.A. (2012, May). The relationship between capital structure&profitability.
56. Wooldridge, J.M. (2016). Introductory Econometrics 6th Edition. In Economica, 42(165), https://doi.org/10.2307/2553001
57. Yildirim, N. (2015). Not leverage but change in leverage matters for firms’ future growth: Evidence from Turkey’s top 1000. International Economic Journal, 29(3), pp. 503–525, https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2015.1065429
58. Zhang, G., Han, J., Pan, Z., Huang, H. (2015). Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China. Economic Systems, 39(3), pp. 439–457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.06.003