Changes of inward and outward FDI stocks in Poland and the stage of the investment development path
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Published:
Jul 27, 2019
Keywords:
FDI, GDP, Investment Development Path, NOI, OPI
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Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyze changes of inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI) stocks in Poland in the years 1994–2016 in the field of the theory of J. H. Dunning`s investment development path (IDP). The following research hypothesis was adopted: If a persistent reduction of net outward FDI stock (NOI) to 0 is accompanied by economic growth (GDP growth, GDP per capita, structural changes in the economy), then it will be possible to achieve stage 3 of the IDP.
The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of NOI accompanying economic development in 1994–2016 were insufficient to confirm full advancement of IDP stage 3 in Poland. We do not observe a definite change in the NOI and economic development stage from stage 2 to 3. Nevertheless, we can support that some changes occur that prove that the economy is at the beginning of stage 3, as the following symptoms are observed: a drop in the levels of NOI, NOI per capita and an increase in the outward performance index (OPI). Considering that stages 1 and 2 continued nearly for 10 years each, the confirmation of stage 3 is likely after 2022. Then we will have empirical data for the period 2013–2022.
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Kosztowniak, A. (2019). Changes of inward and outward FDI stocks in Poland and the stage of the investment development path. Journal of Management and Financial Sciences, (35), 41–60. https://doi.org/10.33119/JMFS.2018.35.3
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References
Compact publications
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New York: Routledge.
8. Dunning J. H., 1993. Global Business: The Challenge of 1990. London and New York: Routledge.
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23. Liu X., Buck T., Shu C., 2005. Chinese economic development, the next stage: outward FDI? “International Business Review”, 2005, No. 14.
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Influence of Foreign Direct Investment on Polish Economy in 1996–2010 Using the VECM Methodology]. Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernicana – Ekonomia, XLIV (2).
26. Narula R., 1996. Multinational Investment and Economic Structure: Globalization and Competitiveness. London: Routledge.
27. Narula R., Dunning J. H., 2000. Industrial Development, Globalization and Multinational Enterprises: New Realities for Developing Countries. Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2.
28. Narula R., Guimón J., 2010, December. The Investment Development Path in A Globalised World: Implications for Eastern Europe. Eastern Journal of European Studies, Vol. 1, Iss. 2.
29. Ozawa T., 1996. Japan: The Macro-IDP, Meso-IDPs and the Technology and the Technology Development Path (TDP). In: J. H. Dunning, R. Narula (Eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and
Governments. London and New York: Routledge.
30. Ozawa T., 2005. Institutions, Industrial Upgrading and Economic Performance in Japan. The Flying Geese Paradigm of Catch-up Growth. New Horizons in International Business, United
Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
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and New York: Routledge.
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pl/obszary-tematyczne/rachunki-narodowe.
2. NBP, 2017. Bilans płatniczy Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej za IV kwartał 2016 r. [Balance of Payments of the Republic of Poland in IV Quarter, 2016]. Warszawa. Retrieved from: http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_platniczy.html
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1. Aizeman J., Noy L., 2006. FDI and Trade – Two Way Linkages? The Quarterly Review of Economics No. 46 (3).
2. Barry F., Goerg H., 2003. McDowell A., 2003. Outward FDI and the Investment Development Path of a Late-Industrializing Economy: Evidence from Ireland. Regional Studies, Vol. 37, No. 4.
3. Bell M., Marin A., 2004. Where Do FDI-Related Technology Spillovers Come from in Emerging Economies? An Exploration in Argentina in the 1990 s. European Journal of Development
Research, Vol. 16, No. 3.
4. Buckley P. J., Castro F. B., 1998. The Investment Development Path: The Case of Portugal. Transnational Corporations, No. 7 (1).
5. Dunning J. H., 1980. Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production – Some Empirical Tests. Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 11, No. 1.
6. Dunning J. H., 1981. Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries: Towards a Dynamic or Development Approach. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiw, Bd. 119.
7. Dunning J. H., 1991. The Eclectic Paradigm of International Production: A Personal Perspective. In: P. Christos and S. Roger (Eds.), The Nature of the Transnational Firm. London and
New York: Routledge.
8. Dunning J. H., 1993. Global Business: The Challenge of 1990. London and New York: Routledge.
9. Dunning J. H., Narula R., 1996. The Investment Development Path Revisited. In: J. Dunning, R. Narula (Eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and Governments. London and New York: Routledge.
10. Durán J. J., Ubeda F., 2001. The Investment Development Path: A New Empirical Approach and Some Theoretical Issues. Transnational Corporations, Vol. 10, No. 2.
11. Galan J., Gonzalez-Benito J., Zuñiga-Vincente J., 2007. Factors Determining the Location Decisions of Spanish MNEs: An Analysis Based on the Investment Development Path. Journal
of International Business Studies, No. 38.
12. Gorynia M., Nowak J., Wolniak R., 2010, January. Investment Development Paths of Central European Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Argumenta Oeconomica.
13. Gurgul H., Lach Ł., 2009. Związki przyczynowe pomiędzy bezpośrednimi inwestycjami zagranicznymi w Polsce a podstawowymi wskaźniki makroekonomiczne (wyniki badań empirycznych) [Causalities between Foreign Direct Investment in Poland and Basic Macroeconomic Indicators (Empirical Findings)]. Ekonomia Menadżerska, No. 6.
14. GUS, 2000, 2017. Mały rocznik statystyczny Polski 2000, 2017 [Concise Statistical Yearbook of Poland]. Warszawa: GUS.
15. GUS, 2006, 2011, 2016. Działalność podmiotów z udziałem kapitału zagranicznego w 2005, 2010, 2015 [Economic Activity of Entities with Foreign Capital in 2005, 2010, 2015]. Warszawa: GUS.
16. GUS, 2010, 2016. Nauka i Technika w 2009 i 2015 [Science and Technology in 2009 and 2015]. Warszawa: GUS.
17. Hermes N., Lensink R., 2003. Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development and Economic Growth. The Journal of Development Studies, No. 40 (1).
18. Herzer D., Klasen S., Nowak-Lehmann F., 2008. Search of FDI-led Growth in Developing Countries: The Way Forward. Economic Modelling, No. 25 (5).
19. Iacovoiu V. B., Panait M., 2014. The Limitation of Investment Development Path Theory. European Union Case. Economic Insights – Trends and Challenges, Vol. III (LXVI), No. 4.
20. Kola M., Kuzel M., 2007. Bezpośrednie inwestycyjne zagraniczne polskich przedsiębiorstw na gruncie teorii ścieżki inwestycyjno-rozwojowej. In: W. Karaszewski (Ed.), Bezpośrednie
inwestycyjne zagraniczne w budowaniu potencjału konkurencyjności przedsiębiorstw i regionów. Toruń: Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika.
21. Kosztowniak A., 2016. Verification of The Relationship Between FDI and GDP in Poland, Acta Oeconomica, Vol. 66 (2).
22. Lall S., 1996. The Investment Development Path: Some Conclusions. In: J. H. Dunning and R. Narula (Eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and Governments. London and New York: Routledge.
23. Liu X., Buck T., Shu C., 2005. Chinese economic development, the next stage: outward FDI? “International Business Review”, 2005, No. 14.
24. Lizińska W., Marks-Bielska R., 2014. Napływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych a rozwój gospodarczy Polski. Ekonomista, No. 5.
25. Marona B., Bieniek A., 2013. Wykorzystanie modelu VECM do analizy wpływu bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych na gospodarkę Polski w latach 1996–2010 [The Analysis of the
Influence of Foreign Direct Investment on Polish Economy in 1996–2010 Using the VECM Methodology]. Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernicana – Ekonomia, XLIV (2).
26. Narula R., 1996. Multinational Investment and Economic Structure: Globalization and Competitiveness. London: Routledge.
27. Narula R., Dunning J. H., 2000. Industrial Development, Globalization and Multinational Enterprises: New Realities for Developing Countries. Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2.
28. Narula R., Guimón J., 2010, December. The Investment Development Path in A Globalised World: Implications for Eastern Europe. Eastern Journal of European Studies, Vol. 1, Iss. 2.
29. Ozawa T., 1996. Japan: The Macro-IDP, Meso-IDPs and the Technology and the Technology Development Path (TDP). In: J. H. Dunning, R. Narula (Eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and
Governments. London and New York: Routledge.
30. Ozawa T., 2005. Institutions, Industrial Upgrading and Economic Performance in Japan. The Flying Geese Paradigm of Catch-up Growth. New Horizons in International Business, United
Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
31. Zhang H., van den Bulcke D., 1996. China: Rapid Changes in the Investment Development Path. In: J. H. Dunning, R. Narula (Eds.), Foreign Direct Investment and Governments. London
and New York: Routledge.
Internet-based sources
1. GUS, 2018. Produkt Krajowy Brutto w 2017 – wstępne szacunki 30.01.2018 [Gross Domestic Product in 2017 – initial estimates of 30.01.2018.] Warszawa. Retrieved from: http://stat.gov.
pl/obszary-tematyczne/rachunki-narodowe.
2. NBP, 2017. Bilans płatniczy Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej za IV kwartał 2016 r. [Balance of Payments of the Republic of Poland in IV Quarter, 2016]. Warszawa. Retrieved from: http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_platniczy.html
3. NBP, 1994–2017. Statystyka bilansu płatniczego [Balance of Payments Statistics]. Retrieved from: http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_platniczy.html
4. OECD.Stat, 1994–2017. National accounts. Retrieved from: https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=60702#
5. UNCTAD.Stat.,1994–2017. Data Center. Retrieved from: http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/report Folders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en