Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : III kwartał 2019 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2019 consumer confidence improved. The IRG SGH consumer sentiment index (IRGKGD) quarterly increased by 3.4 pts, offsetting the decline recorded in the previous quarter (3.2 pts). It is now 1.9 pts up from the respective last year figure. For the last two and a half years consumer sentiments have been very volatile what makes hard to examine and predict the medium-term tendency. The volatility is caused by uncertainty about the magnitude of the expected slowdown in the economy. However, consumers better assess the prospects of the economy and their future ability to save, and are less afraid of getting unemployed. On the other hand, they expect their financial situation to worsen. All in all, the current state of households is inconsistent, and it is difficult to say to what degree the growth is solid and its drivers are strong and stable. The balance of current living costs considerably increased for the second quarter in a row. This is correlated with the rising inflation rate. The consumer goods and services price index currently equals to 2.9% y/y, and the food prices index even over 7% y/y. Inflation expectations for the coming year also increased. Currently, over 82% of survey respondents expect the inflation rate to rise or stay unchanged (previously 78%, and 79% one year ago). The assessments of future purchases of durable goods increased for the third quarter in a row; currently by over 7 pts (previously by 6.5 pts). In total, in the last three quarters the balance grew by almost 20 pts, reaching the highest level since 1999. Consumers expect to rise purchases of cars in the next 12 months, as well as purchases/constructing a house/flat and renovation expenditure. Furthermore, consumers expect their savings to increase. The percentage of households that 'save some' remains high, at 49.3% (42.6% in the previous quarter, and 48.8% one year ago). The percentage of those who 'save a lot' is now 3.8%. In total, 53% of the surveyed households declare their ability to save (previously 47.6%, 51.4% one year ago). (original abstract)