Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : IV kwartał 2021 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

Consumer confidence deteriorated dramatically in the 4th quarter of 2021. The IRG SGH consumer sentiments indicator (CSI) fell by 16.9 pts quarter-on-quarter to -33.5 pts and is now only 4.2 pts above the corresponding last year figure. Notably, all four components of the indicator deteriorated significantly. This is the largest one-off decline in the indicator since the record-breakingly pessimistic 2 nd quarter of 2020 and means that virtually all of this year's improvement in consumer confidence in Poland has disappeared. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation has deteriorated dramatically, and optimism about their future financial situation, which had grown steadily over the previous four quarters, has almost completely eroded. This is due to inflation, which has accelerated in Poland in recent quarters. Thus, the value of the balance of responses to the question about the current cost of living has increased for the sixth consecutive quarter and is the highest since the beginning of consumer research conducted by IRG SGH, i.e. since 1996. Consumers' inflation expectations are also on the rise. According to the respondents, the conditions for the ability to save are constantly and dynamically deteriorating. However, all this had little effect on the savings rate. This may suggest that the effect of households postponing consumption over time is currently greater than the effect of their deteriorating ability to save.(original abstract)