Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : II kwartał 2023 PL Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

The 2 nd quarter of 2023 is yet another in which the IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator increased. This time, it was an upward revision of 6.4 pts, to -24.9 pts, which is 8.1 points higher than in the same period of the previous year and the highest since Q3 2021. What we have, therefore, is a continuation of the improvement in household sentiments that began in Q1 2023, especially when compared to the second half of the previous year - in the first half of this year, the indicator rose by a total of 18.7 points. Importantly, in Q2 2023, as in the previous quarter, all four components of the IRGKGD increased. Thus, there are perspicuous signs of a reversal of the trend from 2022: at the moment, households no longer anticipate an economic downturn, which positively affects how they assess both Poland's overall current economic situation and their own financial situation. Furthermore, Q2 2023 is the second consecutive quarter in which the balance of households' inflation expectations fell significantly. In the period covered by the survey, it stood at 33.3 pts, which is 7.8 pts lower than in the previous quarter, but also as many as 28.8 pts lower than a year earlier and 37.8 pts lower than in the record Q4 2021. This is thus the lowest value of this balance since Q4 2018 (it was then 24.8 pts) and the second lowest since Q3 2016 (then 25.1 pts). Thus, earlier speculations that there was a significant improvement in households' sentiments in this respect this year are confirmed and visible, for example, by the fact that the balance is 18.7 pts below the long-term average, despite the fact that inflation currently remains at a level (excluding 2022) not recorded since 1997, i.e. almost from the very beginning of the IRG SGH consumer survey (original abstract)