Koniunktura w przemyśle wrzesień 2016 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In September 2016 the industrial confidence indicator (ICI) declined by 1.8 points to -1.5 pts. It is 1.0 pts down from the September 2015 figure. The indicator calculated for private firms dropped by 0.2 pts to -1.1 pts, but is lower than a year earlier by 1.5 points. The indicator calculated for public enterprises fell by 13.6 pts to -5.1 pts, the figure lower by 23.4 pts than the September 2015 one. Business situation worsened the most in manufacture of intermediate goods, the Warmińsko-Mazurskie Voivodeship, and large firms, employing 501-2000 persons. After the improvement of business situation in August, it deteriorated in September. Though firms reported an increase in production, total and export orders declined both on the monthly and yearly bases. Inventories dropped, and selling process are on the decrease. Financial situation of firms slightly improved. However, they assess their business prospects and situation of the economy as poorer than one month ego. Public firms are less pessimistic than private ones. The volatility and diversity of business confidence make short-term forecasting difficult. If the seasonal pattern holds, one should expect business situation in the manufacturing industry to get worse. (original abstract)