Mapping the respondents' assessments in business tendency survey using the Viterbi paths


Michał Bernardelli
Monika Dędys


In the paper we propose to use the so-called Viterbi paths for mapping relationships between survey data. The Viterbi path is the most probable sequence of states of a hidden Markov chain in a Markov Switching model (MS). The approach is widely taken to recognize speech or to analyze DNA, but is almost absent in econometrics, despite the great role MS models play in non-linear modeling. The main advantages of the Viterbi paths are: (1) intuitive interpretation of results they give and (2) their wide applicability. They have, however, some disadvantages too. It turns out that the models we have built do not necessarily fit to business tendency survey data, and the interpretation of the hidden states might be unclear.(original abstract)




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