Demographic dynamics, urban-rural divides and the (changing) mother's age at birth in Greece: a regional analysis, 1980–2016
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Published:
Dec 3, 2018
Keywords:
Fertility, demographic transition, recession, urban-rural gradient, Southern Europe
Main Article Content
Abstract
Being more sensitive to economic fluctuations, childbearing postponement increased during the second demographic transition and was accompanied by a moderate decline in the number of children per woman and the progressive rise of mother’s age at first birth. Under the hypothesis that recessions have a marked influence on population dynamics, the present study investigates spatial changes in mother’s age at birth in Greece with the aim to assess the differential impact of economic crisis along the urban-rural gradient. The percent composition of births by mother's age class – considered a gross indicator of fertility under a changing socioeconomic context – was studied at 4 spatial scales (the whole country, administrative regions, prefectures and metropolitan areas or specific economic districts) over an economic cycle from expansion to recession (1980–2016). While stimulating childbearing postponement observed since the early 1980s, empirical results of this study indicate that the 2007 recession was quite neutral on fertility trends in Greece, consolidating the traditional divide between urban and rural areas.
Article Details
How to Cite
Zambon, I. ., Rontos, K., & Salvati, L. . (2018). Demographic dynamics, urban-rural divides and the (changing) mother’s age at birth in Greece: a regional analysis, 1980–2016. Studia Demograficzne, (2(174), pp. 67–86. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2018.2.4
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[43] Neels, K., Theunynck, Z., Wood, J., 2012, Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005, “International Journal of Public Health”, 58 (1), 43–55.
[44] Ní Bhrolcháin, M., Beaujouan, É., 2012, Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment, “Population Studies”, 66 (3), 311–327.
[45] Rindfuss, R. R., Guzzo, K. B., Morgan, S. P., 2004, The changing institutional context of low fertility, “Population Research and Policy Review”, 22 (2003), 411–438.
[46] Rontos, K., 2007, Prospects for a new family formation and for its impact on fertility: Some research evidences from Greece, “Statistical Review”, 3 (1), 49–67.
[47] Rontos, K., 2010, Demographic trends, young people’s attitudes towards marriage and socio-economic changes related to family formation in Greece and in selected European Countries: A comparative analysis based on official and survey research data, “International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory”, 3 (4), 11–33.
[48] Rontos, K., Grigoriadis, E., Sateriano, A., Syrmali, M., Vavouras, I., Salvati, L., 2016, Lost in Protest, Found in Segregation: Divided Cities in the Light of the. 2015 'Oki' Referendum in Greece, “City, Culture and Society”, 7 (3), 139–148.
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[50] Sayas, J. P., 2006, Urban sprawl in the per-urban coastal zones of Athens, “The Greek Review of Social Research”, 120 (B), 71–104.
[51] Skirbekk, V., 2008, Fertility Trends by Social Status, “Demographic Research”, 18 (5), 145–180.
[52] Simou, E., Stavrou, M., Kanavou, E., Koutsogeorgou, E., Roumeliotou, A., 2013, Association between birth rates and selected socio-economic indicators in a time of economic crisis: the case of Greece, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, National School of Public Health, Athens.
[53] Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., Philipov, D., 2011, Economic recession and fertility in the developed world, “Population and Development Review”, 37 (2), 267–306.
[54] Sobotka, T., 2017, Post-transitional fertility: the role of childbearing postponement in fuelling the shift to low and unstable fertility levels, “Journal of Biosocial Science”, 49 (S1), S20‑S45.
[55] Thornton, A., Philipov, D., 2009, Sweeping changes in marriage, cohabitation and childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New insights from the developmental idealism framework, “European Journal of Population”, 25 (2), 123–156.
[56] Van Criekingen, M., 2010, Gentrifying the re-urbanisation debate, not vice versa: the uneven socio-spatial implications of changing transitions to adulthood in Brussels, “Population, Space and Place”, 16 (5), 381–394.
[57] Van Nimwegen, N., 2013, Population change in Europe: turning challenges into opportunities, “Genus”, 69 (1), 103–125.
[58] Vrachnis, N., Vlachadis, N., Iliodromiti, Z., Vlachadi, M., Creatsas, G., 2014, Greece's birth rates and the economic crisis, “The Lancet”, 383 (9918), 692–693.
[59] Walford, N., Kurek, S., 2016, Outworking of the Second Demographic Transition: National Trends and Regional Patterns of Fertility Change in Poland, and England and Wales, 2002– 2012, “Population, Space and Place”, 22 (6), 508–525.
[60] Watkins, S. C., 1990, From local to national communities: The transformation of demographic regimes in Western Europe, 1870–1960, “Population and Development Review”, 16 (2), 241–272.
[2] Andersson, G., Neyer, G., 2004, Contemporary research on European fertility: perspectives and developments, “Demographic Research”, (3), 1–14.
[3] Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., Mills, M., 2013, Fertility in advanced societies: a review of research, “European Journal of Population”, 29 (1), 1–38.
[4] Billari, F. C., Kohler, H.‑P., 2004, Patterns of low and very low fertility in Europe, “Population studies”, 58, 161–176.
[5] Billari, F. C., Philipov, D., 2004, Education and the Transition to Motherhood: A Comparative Analysis of Western Europe, “European Demographic Research Papers” 4, 1–50.
[6] Blangiardo, G. C., Rimoldi, S. M., 2013, The potential demography: a tool for evaluating differences among countries in the European Union, “Genus”, 68 (3), 63–81.
[7] Blue, L., Espenshade, T. J., 2011, Population momentum across the demographic transition, “Population and Development Review”, 37 (4), 721–747.
[8] Bongaarts, J., Watkins, S. C., 1996, Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions, “Population and Development Review”, 22 (4), 639–682.
[9] Bongaarts, J., 2009, Human population growth and the demographic transition, “Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences”, 364 (1532), 2985–2990.
[10] Bongaarts, J., Sobotka, T., 2012, A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility, “Population and Development review”, 38 (1), 83–120.
[11] Butz, W. P., Ward, M. P., 1979a, The emergence of countercyclical U. S. fertility, “The American Economic Review”, 69 (3), 318–328.
[12] Butz, W. P., Ward, M. P., 1979b, Will US fertility remain low? A new economic interpretation, “Population and Development Review”, 5 (4), 663–688.
[13] Caldwell, J. C., Schindlmayr, T., 2003, Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities, “Population Studies”, 57 (3), 241–263.
[14] Castro Martin, T., 1995, Women’s Education and Fertility: Results from 26 Demographic and Health Surveys, “Studies in Family Planning”, 26, 187–202.
[15] Frejka, T., Sobotka, T., Hoem, J. M., Toulemon, L., 2008, Childbearing trends and policies in Europe, “Demographic Research” 19 (20), 720–742.
[16] Gauthier, A. H., 2007, The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature, “Population Research and Policy Review”, 26 (3), 323–346.
[17] Gavalas, V., Rontos, K., Salvati, L., 2014, Who becomes an unwed mother in Greece? Socio--Demographic and Geographical aspects of an emerging phenomenon, “Population, Space and Place”, 20 (3), 250–263.
[18] Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A., 2009, The end of lowest-low fertility?, “Population and Development Review”, 35 (4), 663–699.
[19] Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A., Karaman Ö., Deniz, D., 2013, Fertility reactions to the Great Recession in Europe: Recent evidence from order-specific data, “Demographic Research”, 29, 85–104.
[20] Goldstein, J. R., Kluge, F., 2016, Demographic Pressures on European Unity, “Population and Development Review”, 42 (2), 299–304.
[21] Grigoriadis, E., Salvati, L., 2015, Recession in Action: Exploring the Spatial Divergence of Per capita Income in Greece, “Romanian Journal of Regional Science”, 9 (2), 68–83.
[22] Haase, A., Kabisch, S., Steinführer, A., Bouzarovski, S., Hall, R., Ogden, P., 2010, Spaces of reurbanisation: exploring the demographic dimension of inner-city residential change in a European setting, “Population, Space and Place”, 16 (5), 443–463.
[23] Johnson, K. M., Voss, P. R., Hammer, Roger B., Fuguitt, Glenn V., Mcniven, S., 2005, Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States, “Demography”, 42 (4), 791–812.
[24] Kohler, H. P., Billari, F. C., Ortega, José, A., 2002, The emergence of lowest‐low fertility in Europe during the 1990 s, “Population and Development Review”, 28 (4), 641–680.
[25] Kotzamanis, B., Baltas, P., Kostaki, A., 2017, The Trend of Period Fertility in Greece and Its Changes During the Current Economic Recession, “Population Review”, 56 (2), 30–48.
[26] Kotzamanis, V. 1997, Athens 1848–1995. The demographic emergence of a metropolis, “The Greek Review of Social Research”, 92–93, 3–30.
[27] Kreyenfeld, M., Andersson, G., Pailhé, A., 2012, Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe, “Demographic Research”, 27 (28), 835–852.
[28] Kroll, F., Kabisch, N., 2012, The Relation of Diverging Urban Growth Processes and Demographic Change along an Urban-Rural Gradient, “Population, Space and Place”, 18 (3), 260–276.
[29] Kroonenberg, P. M., 2008, Applied Multiway Data Analysis, London: Wiley.
[30] Kulu, H., 2008, Fertility and spatial mobility in the life-course: Evidence from Austria, “Environment and Planning A”, 40 (3), 632–652.
[31] Kulu, H., Boyle, P. J., Andersson, G., 2009, High Suburban fertility: Evidence from Four Northern European Countries, “Demographic Research”, 31, 915–944.
[32] Lee, R. D., Reher, S. D., 2001, Demographic Transition and Its Consequences, “Population and Development Review”, 37, 1–275.
[33] Lee, R. D., 2003, The demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change, “The journal of economic perspectives”, 17 (4), 167–190.
[34] Livi Bacci, M., 2013, Low fertility in historical perspective, “Population and Development Review”, 38 (s1), 72–82.
[35] Martin, T. C., 1992, Delayed childbearing in contemporary Spain: trends and differentials, “European Journal of Population”, 8 (3), 217–246.
[36] Martín-García, T., 2013, Romulus and Remus or Just Neighbours? A Study of Demographic Changes and Social Dynamics in Italy and Spain, “Population Review”, 52 (1), 1–24.
[37] Matthews, S., Parker, D. M., 2013, Progress in spatial demography, “Demographic Research”, 28, 271–312.
[38] McDonald, P., 2006, Low fertility and the state: The efficacy of policy, “Population and Development Review”, 32 (3), 485–510.
[39] Montgomery, M. R., Casterline, J. B., 1996, Social learning, social influence, and new models of fertility, “Population and Development Review”, 22, 151–175.
[40] Morgan, S. P., Taylor, M. G., 2006, Low fertility at the turn of the twenty-first century, “Annual Review of Sociology”, 32, 375–399.
[41] Mulder, C., Wagner, M., 2001, The connection between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands, “European Journal of Population”, 17 (2), 137–164.
[42] Neels, K., de Wachter, D., 2010, Postponement and recuperation of Belgian fertility: how are they related to rising female educational attainment? “Vienna Yearbook of Population Research”, 8, 77–106.
[43] Neels, K., Theunynck, Z., Wood, J., 2012, Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005, “International Journal of Public Health”, 58 (1), 43–55.
[44] Ní Bhrolcháin, M., Beaujouan, É., 2012, Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment, “Population Studies”, 66 (3), 311–327.
[45] Rindfuss, R. R., Guzzo, K. B., Morgan, S. P., 2004, The changing institutional context of low fertility, “Population Research and Policy Review”, 22 (2003), 411–438.
[46] Rontos, K., 2007, Prospects for a new family formation and for its impact on fertility: Some research evidences from Greece, “Statistical Review”, 3 (1), 49–67.
[47] Rontos, K., 2010, Demographic trends, young people’s attitudes towards marriage and socio-economic changes related to family formation in Greece and in selected European Countries: A comparative analysis based on official and survey research data, “International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory”, 3 (4), 11–33.
[48] Rontos, K., Grigoriadis, E., Sateriano, A., Syrmali, M., Vavouras, I., Salvati, L., 2016, Lost in Protest, Found in Segregation: Divided Cities in the Light of the. 2015 'Oki' Referendum in Greece, “City, Culture and Society”, 7 (3), 139–148.
[49] Salvati, L., De Rosa, S., 2014, ‘Hidden Polycentrism’ or ‘Subtle Dispersion’? Urban growth and long-term sub-centre dynamics in three Mediterranean cities, “Land Use Policy”, 39, 233– 243.
[50] Sayas, J. P., 2006, Urban sprawl in the per-urban coastal zones of Athens, “The Greek Review of Social Research”, 120 (B), 71–104.
[51] Skirbekk, V., 2008, Fertility Trends by Social Status, “Demographic Research”, 18 (5), 145–180.
[52] Simou, E., Stavrou, M., Kanavou, E., Koutsogeorgou, E., Roumeliotou, A., 2013, Association between birth rates and selected socio-economic indicators in a time of economic crisis: the case of Greece, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, National School of Public Health, Athens.
[53] Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., Philipov, D., 2011, Economic recession and fertility in the developed world, “Population and Development Review”, 37 (2), 267–306.
[54] Sobotka, T., 2017, Post-transitional fertility: the role of childbearing postponement in fuelling the shift to low and unstable fertility levels, “Journal of Biosocial Science”, 49 (S1), S20‑S45.
[55] Thornton, A., Philipov, D., 2009, Sweeping changes in marriage, cohabitation and childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New insights from the developmental idealism framework, “European Journal of Population”, 25 (2), 123–156.
[56] Van Criekingen, M., 2010, Gentrifying the re-urbanisation debate, not vice versa: the uneven socio-spatial implications of changing transitions to adulthood in Brussels, “Population, Space and Place”, 16 (5), 381–394.
[57] Van Nimwegen, N., 2013, Population change in Europe: turning challenges into opportunities, “Genus”, 69 (1), 103–125.
[58] Vrachnis, N., Vlachadis, N., Iliodromiti, Z., Vlachadi, M., Creatsas, G., 2014, Greece's birth rates and the economic crisis, “The Lancet”, 383 (9918), 692–693.
[59] Walford, N., Kurek, S., 2016, Outworking of the Second Demographic Transition: National Trends and Regional Patterns of Fertility Change in Poland, and England and Wales, 2002– 2012, “Population, Space and Place”, 22 (6), 508–525.
[60] Watkins, S. C., 1990, From local to national communities: The transformation of demographic regimes in Western Europe, 1870–1960, “Population and Development Review”, 16 (2), 241–272.