Estymacja prawdopodobieństw przejścia między stanami zdrowia osóbw wieku 50 lat i więcej w Polsce w modelu wielostanowym
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Published:
Dec 5, 2015
Keywords:
transition probabilities, health, multi-state model, the elderly in Poland
Main Article Content
Abstract
Poland will experience advanced population ageing driven by improvements in longevity, low fertility and retirement of baby boom cohorts. Given the higher morbidity prevalence observed at older ages, the demand for the elderly care is expected to increase.
The study focuses on the dynamics of health of people aged 50 and over in Poland. We want to verify how the risks of the health status change are shaped over age and what the impact of sex is.
The empirical analysis provides a description of a non-parametric multi-state model for transitions in health. The age- and sex-specific health transition rates and probabilities are estimated based on the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel data for the years 2008–2011.
The results confirm the well-known regularities in research on health: the risk of being unhealthy is increasing with age, while the probability of recovery is decreasing. Women have a higher risk of the onset of disability than men, whereas recovery to health is similar for men and women.
Article Details
How to Cite
Łątkowski, W. (2015). Estymacja prawdopodobieństw przejścia między stanami zdrowia osóbw wieku 50 lat i więcej w Polsce w modelu wielostanowym. Studia Demograficzne, (2(168), pp. 25–37. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2015.2.2
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[2] Beckett L.A., Brock D.B., Lemke J.H., Mendes de Leon C.F., Guralnik J.M., Fillenbaum G.G., Branch L.G., Wetle T.T., Evans D.A., 1996, Analysis of change in self-reported physical function among older persons in four population studies, „American Journal of Epidemiology”, vol. 143, nr 8, 766–778.
[3] Chan A., Zimmer Z., Saito Y., 2011, Gender differentials in disability and mortality transitions the case of older adults in Japan, „Journal of Ageing and Health”, vol. 23, nr 8, 1285–1308.
[4] Christensen K., Doblhammer G., Rau R., Vaupel J.W., 2009, Ageing populations: the challenges ahead, „Lancet”, vol. 374, nr 9696, 1196–1208.
[5] Crimmins E.M., Hayward M.D., Saito Y., 1994, Changing mortality and morbidity rates and the health status and life expectancy of the older population, „Demography”, vol. 31, nr 1, 159–175.
[6] European Health and Life Expectancy Information System (EHLEIS), 2015, Health Expectancy in Poland, Issue 8, zasób internetowy, http://www.eurohex.eu, (data dostępu: 10.07.2015).
[7] Eurostat, 2014, EUROPOP2013 – Population projections at national level, zasób internetowy, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (data dostępu: 19.06.2015).
[8] Fries J.F., 1980, Aging, natural death and the compression of morbidity, „The New England Journal of Medicine”, vol. 303, nr 3, 130–135.
[9] Guralnik J.M., Simonsick E.M., 1993. Physical disability in older Americans, „Journal of Gerontology”, vol. 48 (Special Issue), 3–10.
[10] Hardy S.E., Dubin, J.A., Holford T.R., Gill, T.M., 2005, Transitions between states of disability and independence among older persons, „American Journal of Epidemiology”, vol. 161, nr 6, 575–584.
[11] Kotowska I.E., 1994, Population Dynamics in Poland 1950–2050. Internal Migration and Marital Changes, IIASA Working Paper, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
[12] Manton K., 1982, Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population, „The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society”, vol. 60, nr 2, 183–244.
[13] Muszyńska M., 2011, Female-male gap in life-expectancy in Poland, „Studia Demograficzne”, nr 1/159, 23–36.
[14] Newman A.B., Brach J.S., 2001, Gender gap in longevity and disability in older persons, „Epidemiologic Reviews”, vol. 23, nr 2, 323–350.
[15] Oksuzyan A., Knud J., Vaupel J.W., Christensen K., 2008, Men: good health and high mortality. Sex differences in health and aging, „Aging Clinical and Experimental Research”, vol. 20, nr 2, 91–102.
[16] Oksuzyan A., Petersen I., Stovring H., Bingely P., Vaupel J.W., Chrestensen K., 2009, The male-female health-survival paradox: A survey and register study of the impact of sex-specific selection and information bias, „Annals of Epidemiology”, vol. 19, nr 7, 504–511.
[17] Olshansky S.J., Rudberg M.A., Carnes B.A., Cassel B.A., Brady J.A., 1991, Trading off longer life for worsening health: The expansion of morbidity hypothesis, „Journal of Aging and Health”, vol. 3, nr 2, 194–216.
[18] Putter H., Fiocco M., Geskus R.B., 2007, Tutorial in biostatistics: Competing risks and multi-state models, „Statistics in Medicine”, vol. 26, 2389–2430.
[19] R Core Team, 2015, R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, http://www.R-project.org/.
[20] Rau R., Soroko E., Jasilionis D. and Vaupel J.W., 2008, Continued reductions in mortality at advanced ages, „Population and Development Review”, vol. 34, nr 4, 747–768.
[21] Rogers A., 1975, Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography, John Wiley, New York.
[22] Rosen M., Haglund B., 2005, From healthy survivors to sick survivors – implications for the twenty-first century, „Scandinavian Journal of Public Health”, vol. 33, 151–155.
[23] Salive M.E., 2013, Multimorbidity in Older Adults, „Epidemiologic Reviews”, vol. 35, nr 1, 75–83.
[24] Schoeni R.F., Freedman V.A., Wallace R.B., 2001, Persistent, consistent, widespread, and robust? Another look at recent trends in old-age disability, „Journal of Gerontology”, vol. 56B, nr 4, 206–218.
[25] Stonawski M., 2014, Kapitał ludzki w warunkach starzenia się ludności a wzrost gospodarczy, Monografie: Prace Doktorskie, nr 21, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie, Kraków.
[26] Strzelecki P., 2009, The multi-state projection of Poland’s population by educational attainment for the years 2003–2030, „Studia Demograficzne”, nr 2/152, 23–44.
[27] Szukalski P., 2008, Ewolucja umieralności i niepełnosprawności w świetle koncepcji rektangularyzacji krzywej przeżycia, [w:] J.T. Kowaleski, P. Szukalski (red.), Starzenie się ludności Polski – między demografią a gerontologią społeczną (s. 89–123), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.
[28] van Imhoff E., Keilman N., 1991, LIPRO 2.0. An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to a Household Structure in the Netherlands, NIDI/CBGS Publications nr 23, Swets & Zeitlinger, Amsterdam/Lisse.
[29] Vaupel J.W., 2010, Biodemography of human ageing, „Nature”, vol. 464, 536–542.
[30] Verbrugge L.M., 1984, A health profile of older women with comparisons to older men, „Research on Aging”, vol. 6, 291–322.
[31] Willekens F.J., 2013, Biograph: Explore life histories, R package version 2.0.4, http://CRAN.R-project. org/package=Biograph (data dostępu: 17.01.2015).
[32] Willekens F.J., 2014, Multistate Analysis of Life Histories with R, Springer, New York.
[33] Willekens F.J., Drewe P., 1984, A multiregional model for regional demographic projections, [w:] H. ter Heide (red.), Demographic Research and Spatial Policy. The Dutch Experience (s. 309–334), Academic Press, London.
[34] Wolf D.A., Gill T.M., 2009, Modeling transition rates using panel current-status data: How serious is the bias? „Demography”, vol. 46 (2), 371–386.