Demographic projections by religion and education in India
Article Sidebar
Published:
Jun 12, 2015
Keywords:
India, Religion, Education, multistate population projections
Main Article Content
Abstract
Studying religion jointly with education allows one to produce more precise projections of the size and structure of religious communities. India’s religious groups are characterized by large differences in their education and fertility levels. Among those with secondary or more education, there tends to be low variation in fertility, while for those without any education, fertility is high and varies substantially. For India, if fertility differentials were constant and there was no increase in educational enrolment, the Indian population would grow from 846 million in 2000 to more than 2.3 billion in 2050, while the Hindu population would change from 80.2% to 76.4% and the proportion of Muslims would rise from 13.4% to 19%. If fertility converges and education levels increases, the population would increase to 1.7 billion by 2050, with 78.2% Hindus and 16.5% Muslims.
Article Details
How to Cite
Stonawski, M., Potančoková, M., & Skirbekk, V. . (2015). Demographic projections by religion and education in India. Studia Demograficzne, (1(167), pp. 3–29. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2015.1.1
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
[1] Abbasi-Shavazi M. J., McDonald P., Hosseini-Chavoshi M., 2009, The Fertility Transition in Iran: Revolution and Reproduction, Springer, Dordrecht.
[2] Abou-Gamrah H., 1982, Fertility Levels and Differentials by Mother’s Education in Some Countries of the ECWA Region, [in:] Determinants of Fertility in Some African and Asian Countries (p. 191–211), Research Monograph Series, vol. 10, Cairo Demographic Centre, Cairo.
[3] Akmam W., 2002, Women’s Education and Fertility Rates in Developing Countries, With Special Reference to Bangladesh, “Journal of Asian and International Bioethics”, vol. 12, 138–43.
[4] Albouy V., Lequien L., 2009, Does Compulsory Education Lower Mortality?, “Journal of Health Economics”, vol. 28, no. 1, 155–68.
[5] Bhat M., Zavier F., 2005, Role of Religion in Fertility Decline, “Economic and Political Weekly”, Jan 29., 385-402.
[6] Bongaarts J., 2003, Completing the Fertility Transition in the Developing World: The Role of Educational Differences and Fertility Preferences, “Population Studies”, vol. 57, 321–36.
[7] Dyson T., Cassen R., Visaria L., 2005, Twenty-first century India: population, economy, human development, and the environment, “OUP Catalogue”, Oxford University Press.
[8] Fuchs R., Goujon A., 2014, Future Fertility in High Fertility Countries, [in:] Lutz W., Butz W. P., KC S. (eds.), World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (p. 147–225), Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[9] Goujon A., Skirbekk V., Fliegenschnee K., Strzelecki P., 2007, New Times, Old Beliefs: Projecting the Future Size of Religions in Austria, “Vienna Yearbook of Population Research”, vol. 5, 237–70.
[10] Gulesci S., Meyersson E., 2012, ‘For the Love of the Republic’ Education, Religion, and Empowerment in Turkey, Working Paper available at: http://econ.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/files/gulesci_meyersson_loverepublic.pdf .
[11] Hackett C., Grim B., Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Kuriakose N., Potancokova M., 2014, Methodology of the Pew Research Global Religious Landscape Study, “Yearbook of International Religious Demography”, vol. 131.
[12] Hackett C., Connor P., Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Potancokova M., Guy A., 2015, The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, Pew Research Center, Washington D.C.
[13] Heaton T. B., 2011, Does Religion Influence Fertility in Developing Countries, “Population Research and Policy Review”, vol. 30, no. 3, 449–65.
[14] Hungerman D. M., 2011, The Effect of Education on Religion: Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws, Working Paper no. 16973, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[15] Jeffery R., Jeffery P., 1997, Population, Gender and Politics: Demographic Change in Rural North India, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[16] Jejeebhoy S. J., 1995, Women’s Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
[17] Joseph C., 2013, Determinants of fertility differentials among the religious groups in Kerala, doctoral thesis, School of Gandhian thought and development studies, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala, http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in//handle/10603/7084 .
[18] Kaufmann E., Goujon A., Skirbekk V., 2012, The End of Secularization in Europe? A Socio-Demographic Perspective, “Sociology of Religion”, vol. 73, no. 1, 69–91.
[19] KC S., Potančoková M., Bauer R., Goujon A., Striessnig E., 2014, Data and Methods, [in:] World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century, Lutz W., Butz W. P., Samir K. C. (eds.), World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (p. 147–225), Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[20] Kravdal Ø., 2004, Child Mortality in India: The Community-Level Effect of Education, “Population Studies”, vol. 58, no. 2, 177–92.
[21] Kumar A., 2012, Religion Vis-a Vis Fertility and Family Planning Behavior in Uttar Pradesh, India, “Journal of Research in Peace Gender and Development”, vol. 2, no. 1, 10–14.
[22] Nachane D. M., 2011, India Development Report, 2011, Oxford University Press.
[23] Norris P., Inglehart R., 2004, Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[24] PEW, 2011, The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Projections for 2010-2030, PEW Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C.
[25] PEW, 2012, The Global Religious Landscape. PEW forum on religion and public life. Washington D.C. Philipov D., Rodgers A., 1981, Multistate Population Projections. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
[26] Rocca C. H., Shankar M., Sreevathsa A., Krishnan S., 2013, Acceptability and use of emergency contraception among married women in Bangalore, India, “International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics”, vol. 121, no. 1, 64–68.
[27] Rogers A., 1975, Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
[28] Rogers A., 1995, Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions, John Wiley, Chichester.
[29] Ryder N. B., 1980, The Cohort Approach: Essays in the Measurement of Temporal Variations in Demographic Behavior, Ayer Publishing.
[30] Siddiqui F., Jamal A., 2012, Fertility Differential by Education and Religion in Dhanbad District, Jharkhand (India), “The Arab World Geographer”, vol. 15, no. 3, 226–42.
[31] Skirbekk V., 2008, Fertility Trends by Social Status, “Demographic Research”, vol. 18, no. 5, 145–80.
[32] Skirbekk V., Kaufmann E., Goujon A., 2010, Secularism, Fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043, “Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion”, vol. 49, no. 2, 293–310.
[33] Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Hackett C., Potancokova M., Grim B., 2014, The Size and Demographic Structure of Religions in Europe, “Yearbook of International Religious Demography”, vol. 131.
[34] Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Kaufmann E., Goujon A., 2015, The End of Secularization through Demography? Projections of Spanish Religiosity, “Journal of Contemporary Religion”, vol. 30, no. 1, 1–21.
[35] Subramanian S.V., Nandy S., Irving M., Gordon D., Lambert H., Smith G. D., 2006, The Mortality Divide in India: The Differential Contributions of Gender, Caste, and Standard of Living Across the Life Course, “American Journal of Public Health”, vol. 96, no. 5, 818–25.
[36] Suryanarayana M., Agrawal A., Prabhu K.S., 2011, Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index for India’s States, UNDP India, New Delhi.
[37] UN, 2013, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations Population Division, New York.
[38] University Grants Commission, 2008, Higher Education in India - Issues Related to Expansion, Inclusiveness, Quality and Finance, University Grants Commission, New Delhi.
[2] Abou-Gamrah H., 1982, Fertility Levels and Differentials by Mother’s Education in Some Countries of the ECWA Region, [in:] Determinants of Fertility in Some African and Asian Countries (p. 191–211), Research Monograph Series, vol. 10, Cairo Demographic Centre, Cairo.
[3] Akmam W., 2002, Women’s Education and Fertility Rates in Developing Countries, With Special Reference to Bangladesh, “Journal of Asian and International Bioethics”, vol. 12, 138–43.
[4] Albouy V., Lequien L., 2009, Does Compulsory Education Lower Mortality?, “Journal of Health Economics”, vol. 28, no. 1, 155–68.
[5] Bhat M., Zavier F., 2005, Role of Religion in Fertility Decline, “Economic and Political Weekly”, Jan 29., 385-402.
[6] Bongaarts J., 2003, Completing the Fertility Transition in the Developing World: The Role of Educational Differences and Fertility Preferences, “Population Studies”, vol. 57, 321–36.
[7] Dyson T., Cassen R., Visaria L., 2005, Twenty-first century India: population, economy, human development, and the environment, “OUP Catalogue”, Oxford University Press.
[8] Fuchs R., Goujon A., 2014, Future Fertility in High Fertility Countries, [in:] Lutz W., Butz W. P., KC S. (eds.), World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (p. 147–225), Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[9] Goujon A., Skirbekk V., Fliegenschnee K., Strzelecki P., 2007, New Times, Old Beliefs: Projecting the Future Size of Religions in Austria, “Vienna Yearbook of Population Research”, vol. 5, 237–70.
[10] Gulesci S., Meyersson E., 2012, ‘For the Love of the Republic’ Education, Religion, and Empowerment in Turkey, Working Paper available at: http://econ.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/files/gulesci_meyersson_loverepublic.pdf .
[11] Hackett C., Grim B., Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Kuriakose N., Potancokova M., 2014, Methodology of the Pew Research Global Religious Landscape Study, “Yearbook of International Religious Demography”, vol. 131.
[12] Hackett C., Connor P., Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Potancokova M., Guy A., 2015, The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, Pew Research Center, Washington D.C.
[13] Heaton T. B., 2011, Does Religion Influence Fertility in Developing Countries, “Population Research and Policy Review”, vol. 30, no. 3, 449–65.
[14] Hungerman D. M., 2011, The Effect of Education on Religion: Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws, Working Paper no. 16973, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[15] Jeffery R., Jeffery P., 1997, Population, Gender and Politics: Demographic Change in Rural North India, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[16] Jejeebhoy S. J., 1995, Women’s Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
[17] Joseph C., 2013, Determinants of fertility differentials among the religious groups in Kerala, doctoral thesis, School of Gandhian thought and development studies, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala, http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in//handle/10603/7084 .
[18] Kaufmann E., Goujon A., Skirbekk V., 2012, The End of Secularization in Europe? A Socio-Demographic Perspective, “Sociology of Religion”, vol. 73, no. 1, 69–91.
[19] KC S., Potančoková M., Bauer R., Goujon A., Striessnig E., 2014, Data and Methods, [in:] World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century, Lutz W., Butz W. P., Samir K. C. (eds.), World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century (p. 147–225), Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[20] Kravdal Ø., 2004, Child Mortality in India: The Community-Level Effect of Education, “Population Studies”, vol. 58, no. 2, 177–92.
[21] Kumar A., 2012, Religion Vis-a Vis Fertility and Family Planning Behavior in Uttar Pradesh, India, “Journal of Research in Peace Gender and Development”, vol. 2, no. 1, 10–14.
[22] Nachane D. M., 2011, India Development Report, 2011, Oxford University Press.
[23] Norris P., Inglehart R., 2004, Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[24] PEW, 2011, The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Projections for 2010-2030, PEW Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C.
[25] PEW, 2012, The Global Religious Landscape. PEW forum on religion and public life. Washington D.C. Philipov D., Rodgers A., 1981, Multistate Population Projections. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
[26] Rocca C. H., Shankar M., Sreevathsa A., Krishnan S., 2013, Acceptability and use of emergency contraception among married women in Bangalore, India, “International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics”, vol. 121, no. 1, 64–68.
[27] Rogers A., 1975, Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
[28] Rogers A., 1995, Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions, John Wiley, Chichester.
[29] Ryder N. B., 1980, The Cohort Approach: Essays in the Measurement of Temporal Variations in Demographic Behavior, Ayer Publishing.
[30] Siddiqui F., Jamal A., 2012, Fertility Differential by Education and Religion in Dhanbad District, Jharkhand (India), “The Arab World Geographer”, vol. 15, no. 3, 226–42.
[31] Skirbekk V., 2008, Fertility Trends by Social Status, “Demographic Research”, vol. 18, no. 5, 145–80.
[32] Skirbekk V., Kaufmann E., Goujon A., 2010, Secularism, Fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043, “Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion”, vol. 49, no. 2, 293–310.
[33] Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Hackett C., Potancokova M., Grim B., 2014, The Size and Demographic Structure of Religions in Europe, “Yearbook of International Religious Demography”, vol. 131.
[34] Stonawski M., Skirbekk V., Kaufmann E., Goujon A., 2015, The End of Secularization through Demography? Projections of Spanish Religiosity, “Journal of Contemporary Religion”, vol. 30, no. 1, 1–21.
[35] Subramanian S.V., Nandy S., Irving M., Gordon D., Lambert H., Smith G. D., 2006, The Mortality Divide in India: The Differential Contributions of Gender, Caste, and Standard of Living Across the Life Course, “American Journal of Public Health”, vol. 96, no. 5, 818–25.
[36] Suryanarayana M., Agrawal A., Prabhu K.S., 2011, Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index for India’s States, UNDP India, New Delhi.
[37] UN, 2013, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations Population Division, New York.
[38] University Grants Commission, 2008, Higher Education in India - Issues Related to Expansion, Inclusiveness, Quality and Finance, University Grants Commission, New Delhi.