Badanie dynamiki ubóstwa w Polsce z wykorzystaniem modeli analizy historii zdarzeń o czasie dyskretnym
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Published:
May 13, 2013
Keywords:
poverty dynamics, event history analysis, discrete-time models
Main Article Content
Abstract
Studies on poverty are based predominantly on cross-sectional analysis. Including a time dimension in the analysis allows us to better understanding the dynamics of poverty. In the long run, a unit (individual, household, family) can enter and exit poverty several times. An analysis of determinants of these events allows us to identify groups of households which are particularly likely to enter into poverty, and those with a high chance of exiting poverty.
The main aim of this article is to identify determinants of transitions into and out of poverty in Poland in 2000–2011. To achieve this, I use logit regression models for discrete-time event history analysis. I present two specifications of the model, one with number of years spent outside poverty and a second with additional selected socio-economic characteristics of household and household head.
The results of estimation suggest that the amount of time spent out of poverty or in poverty does not have a significantly effect, with the exception of one case, on the probability of a change in the status (in poverty/out of poverty). In the case of entries into poverty, including additional variables improves the model. I find that a change in probability of entry into poverty is significantly affected by age and education of household head, place of residence and labour force status of household. However, expanded model of poverty exits is worse than the base model. None of the included variables are statistically significant.
Article Details
How to Cite
Sączewska-Piotrowska, A. . (2013). Badanie dynamiki ubóstwa w Polsce z wykorzystaniem modeli analizy historii zdarzeń o czasie dyskretnym. Studia Demograficzne, (1(163), pp. 73–96. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2013.1.4
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[31] Myrdal G, 1963, Challenge of affluence, Pantheon Books, New York.
[32] Okrasa W., 1999, Who avoids and who escapes from poverty during the transition. Evidence from Polish panel 1993–96, “Policy Research Working Paper”, 2218, The World Bank, Research Development Group, Washington DC.
[33] Okrasa W., 2000, Who are Poland’s long-term poor? Household risk-managing capabilities according to panel data 1993–1996, “Statistics in transition”, vol. 4, s. 841–882.
[34] Panek T., 2001, Wymiary ubóstwa w Polsce w latach 1996–1999, “Wiadomości Statystyczne”, nr 11, s. 37–55.
[35] Panek T., 2007, Ubóstwo i nierówności, [w:] T. Panek (red.), Statystyka społeczna (s. 258–298), PWE, Warszawa.
[36] Panek T., 2011, Ubóstwo, wykluczenie społeczne i nierówności. Teoria i praktyka pomiaru, SGH, Warszawa.
[37] Panek T., Podgórski J., Szulc A., 1999, Ubóstwo: teoria i praktyka pomiaru, Monografie i Opracowania 453, SGH, Warszawa.
[38] Rada Monitoringu Społecznego, 2012, Diagnoza społeczna 2011: zintegrowana baza danych, www.diagnoza.com (data dostępu: 14.08.2012).
[39] Rainwater L., 1981, Persistent and transitory poverty: a new look, Working Paper no. 70, Joint Center for urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, Cambridge: MIT, Harvard.
[40] Rodgers J.R., Rodgers J.L., 1993, Chronic poverty in the United States, “The Journal of Human Resources”, vol. 28, s. 25–54.
[41] Rusnak Z., 2007, Statystyczna analiza dobrobytu ekonomicznego gospodarstw domowych, AE, Wrocław.
[42] Shorrocks A.F., 1978, The measurement of mobility, „Econometrica”, vol. 46, s. 1013–1024.
[43] Steele F., 2005, Event history analysis, NCRM Methods Review Papers, NCRM/004, ESRC Centre for Research Methods, http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/88/1/MethodsReviewPaper NCRM-004.pdf (data dostępu 20.10.2012).
[44] Steele F., 2007, Multilevel discrete-time event history analysis, Centre for Multilevel Modeling, Graduate School of Education, University of Bristol, 13–14 September 2007, http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/support/workshops/materials/eha.ppt (data dostępu 15.10.2012).
[45] Steele F., 2011, Multilevel discrete-time event history models with applications to the analysis of recurrent employment transitions, “Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics”, vol. 53, s. 1–26.
[46] Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska A., 2008, Pomiar ubóstwa i wykluczenia społecznego w urzędowej statystyce polskiej, [w:] I. Topińska (red.), J. Ciecieląg, A. Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska, Pomiar ubóstwa. Zmiany koncepcji i ich znaczenie (s. 27–72), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[47] Thorbecke E., 2003, Conceptual and measurement issues in poverty analysis, paper prepared for the UNU-WIDER „Conference on inequality, poverty and human well-being” 30–31 May 2003, Helsinki.
[48] Topińska I., 2005, Dynamika i trwałość ubóstwa w Polsce i na Węgrzech w latach dziewięćdziesiątych, [w:] S. Golinowska, E. Tarkowska, I. Topińska (red.), Ubóstwo i wykluczenie społeczne. Badania. Metody. Wyniki (s. 65–89), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[49] Topińska I., 2008, Kierunki zmian w statystyce ubóstwa, [w:] I. Topińska (red.), J. Ciecieląg, A. Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska, Pomiar ubóstwa. Zmiany koncepcji i ich znaczenie (s. 8–26), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[50] Twisk J.W.R., 2010, Analiza wielopoziomowa – przykłady zastosowań. Praktyczny podręcznik biostatystyki i epidemiologii, SGH, Warszawa.
[51] Willet J.B., Singer J.D., 1995, It’s déjà vu all over again: using multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis, “Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics” vol. 20, s. 41–67.
[52] Yamaguchi K., 1991, Event history analysis, Applied Social Research Method Series vol. 28, Sage Publications, Newbury Park-London-New Delhi.
[53] Yaqub S., 2000, Poverty dynamics in developing countries, Development Bibliography 16, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton.
[2] Abel-Smith B., Townsend P., 1965, The poor and the poorest, Occasional Papers on Social Administration, no. 17, Bell, London.
[3] Allison P.D., 1982, Discrete-time methods for the analysis of event histories, „Sociological Methodology” vol. 13, s. 61–98.
[4] Atkinson T., Cantillon B., Marlier E., Nolan B., 2002, Social indicators. The EU and social inclusion, Oxford University Press, New York.
[5] Bane M.J., Ellwood D.T, 1986, Slipping into and out of poverty: the dynamics of spells, “The Journal of Human Resources”, vol. 21, s. 1–23.
[6] Betti G., Verma V., 2004, A methodology for the study of multi-dimensional and longitudinal aspects of poverty and deprivation, invited paper, IAOS-IASS Joint Conference, November29-December 1st, 2004, Amman-Jordan.
[7] Browne W.J., 2006, A comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based methods for fitting multilevel models, “Bayesian Analysis”, vol. 1, s. 473–514.
[8] Browne W.J., Goldstein H., Rasbash J., 2001, Multiple membership multiple classification (MMMC) models, Statistical Modelling, vol. 1, s. 103–124.
[9] Callens M., Croux C., 2009, Poverty dynamics in Europe. A multilevel discrete-time recurrent hazard analysis, “International Sociology”, vol. 24, s. 368–396.
[10] Diagnoza społeczna 2005. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków, 2006, J. Czapiński, T. Panek (red.), Vizja Press & IT, Warszawa.
[11] Diagnoza społeczna 2007. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków, 2007, J. Czapiński, T. Panek (red.), Vizja Press & IT, Warszawa.
[12] Diagnoza społeczna 2009. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków, 2009, J. Czapiński, T. Panek (red.), Centrum Rozwoju Zasobów Ludzkich, Warszawa.
[13] Diagnoza społeczna 2011. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków, 2012, J. Czapiński, T. Panek (red.), Centrum Rozwoju Zasobów Ludzkich, Warszawa.
[14] Duncan G.J., Coe R.B., Hill M.S., 1984, The dynamics of poverty, [w:] G. Duncan (red.), Years of poverty and plenty (s. 33–70), Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI.
[15] Duncan G.J., Rodgers W., 1991, Has children’s poverty become more persistent?, “American Sociological Review”, vol. 56, s. 538–550.
[16] Foster J.E., 2007, A class of chronic poverty measures, Working Paper no. 07-W01, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University.
[17] Foster J., Greer J., Thorbecke E., 1984, A class of decomposable poverty measures, “Econometrica”, vol. 52, s. 761–766.
[18] Frątczak E., Gach-Ciepiela U., Babiker H., 2005, Analiza historii zdarzeń. Elementy teorii, wybrane przykłady zastosowań, SGH, Warszawa.
[19] Gaiha R., Deolalikar A.B., 1993, Persistence, expected and innate poverty: estimates for semi arid rural South India, “Cambridge Journal of Economics”, vol. 17, s. 409–421.
[20] Goedhart T, Halberstadt V., Kapteyn A., van Praag B., 1977, The poverty line: concept and measurement, “The Journal of Human Resources”, vol. 12, s. 503–520.
[21] Gradín C., del Río C., Cantó O., 2010, Measuring poverty accounting for time, Working Papers 169, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
[22] Grzenda W., 2012, Wybrane zagadnienia estymacji bayesowskiej, [w:] E. Frątczak (red.), Zaawansowane metody analiz statystycznych (s. 419–501), SGH, Warszawa.
[23] Hagenaars A.J.M., van Praag B.M.S., 1985, A synthesis of poverty line definitions, “Journal of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth”, Series 31, s. 139–154.
[24] Hagenaars A., de Vos K., 1988, The definition and measurement of poverty, “The Journal of Human Resources”, vol. 23, s. 211–221.
[25] Heckman J.J, 1981, Heterogeneity and state dependence, [w:] S. Rosen (red.), Studies in labor markets (s. 91–140), Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois.
[26] Hulme D., Shepherd A., 2003, Conceptualizing chronic poverty, “World Development”, vol. 31, s. 403–423.
[27] Jalan J., Ravallion M., 1998, Determinants of transient and chronic poverty. Evidence from rural China, “Policy Research Working Paper”, 1936, The World Bank, Research Development Group, Washington DC.
[28] Jenkins S.P, 2004, Survival analysis (lecture notes), Institute for Social and Economic Research, Univerity of Essex.
[29] Jenkins S.P., Rigg J.A., Devicienti F., 2001, The dynamics of poverty in Britain, Research report no. 157, Corporate Document Services for the Department for Work and Pensions, Great Britain Department for Work and Pensions, Univeristy of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
[30] Morecka Z., Styrc M., 2008, Przegląd i analiza wyników badań nad przyczynami, zakresem, korelatami i konsekwencjami ubóstwa w Polsce, [w:] S. Golinowska, Z. Morecka, M. Styrc, E. Cukrowska, J. Cukrowski, Od ubóstwa do wykluczenia społecznego. Badania. Koncepcje. Wyniki. Propozycje Polska, Europa i świat (s. 9–71), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[31] Myrdal G, 1963, Challenge of affluence, Pantheon Books, New York.
[32] Okrasa W., 1999, Who avoids and who escapes from poverty during the transition. Evidence from Polish panel 1993–96, “Policy Research Working Paper”, 2218, The World Bank, Research Development Group, Washington DC.
[33] Okrasa W., 2000, Who are Poland’s long-term poor? Household risk-managing capabilities according to panel data 1993–1996, “Statistics in transition”, vol. 4, s. 841–882.
[34] Panek T., 2001, Wymiary ubóstwa w Polsce w latach 1996–1999, “Wiadomości Statystyczne”, nr 11, s. 37–55.
[35] Panek T., 2007, Ubóstwo i nierówności, [w:] T. Panek (red.), Statystyka społeczna (s. 258–298), PWE, Warszawa.
[36] Panek T., 2011, Ubóstwo, wykluczenie społeczne i nierówności. Teoria i praktyka pomiaru, SGH, Warszawa.
[37] Panek T., Podgórski J., Szulc A., 1999, Ubóstwo: teoria i praktyka pomiaru, Monografie i Opracowania 453, SGH, Warszawa.
[38] Rada Monitoringu Społecznego, 2012, Diagnoza społeczna 2011: zintegrowana baza danych, www.diagnoza.com (data dostępu: 14.08.2012).
[39] Rainwater L., 1981, Persistent and transitory poverty: a new look, Working Paper no. 70, Joint Center for urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, Cambridge: MIT, Harvard.
[40] Rodgers J.R., Rodgers J.L., 1993, Chronic poverty in the United States, “The Journal of Human Resources”, vol. 28, s. 25–54.
[41] Rusnak Z., 2007, Statystyczna analiza dobrobytu ekonomicznego gospodarstw domowych, AE, Wrocław.
[42] Shorrocks A.F., 1978, The measurement of mobility, „Econometrica”, vol. 46, s. 1013–1024.
[43] Steele F., 2005, Event history analysis, NCRM Methods Review Papers, NCRM/004, ESRC Centre for Research Methods, http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/88/1/MethodsReviewPaper NCRM-004.pdf (data dostępu 20.10.2012).
[44] Steele F., 2007, Multilevel discrete-time event history analysis, Centre for Multilevel Modeling, Graduate School of Education, University of Bristol, 13–14 September 2007, http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/support/workshops/materials/eha.ppt (data dostępu 15.10.2012).
[45] Steele F., 2011, Multilevel discrete-time event history models with applications to the analysis of recurrent employment transitions, “Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics”, vol. 53, s. 1–26.
[46] Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska A., 2008, Pomiar ubóstwa i wykluczenia społecznego w urzędowej statystyce polskiej, [w:] I. Topińska (red.), J. Ciecieląg, A. Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska, Pomiar ubóstwa. Zmiany koncepcji i ich znaczenie (s. 27–72), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[47] Thorbecke E., 2003, Conceptual and measurement issues in poverty analysis, paper prepared for the UNU-WIDER „Conference on inequality, poverty and human well-being” 30–31 May 2003, Helsinki.
[48] Topińska I., 2005, Dynamika i trwałość ubóstwa w Polsce i na Węgrzech w latach dziewięćdziesiątych, [w:] S. Golinowska, E. Tarkowska, I. Topińska (red.), Ubóstwo i wykluczenie społeczne. Badania. Metody. Wyniki (s. 65–89), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[49] Topińska I., 2008, Kierunki zmian w statystyce ubóstwa, [w:] I. Topińska (red.), J. Ciecieląg, A. Szukiełojć-Bieńkuńska, Pomiar ubóstwa. Zmiany koncepcji i ich znaczenie (s. 8–26), IPiSS, Warszawa.
[50] Twisk J.W.R., 2010, Analiza wielopoziomowa – przykłady zastosowań. Praktyczny podręcznik biostatystyki i epidemiologii, SGH, Warszawa.
[51] Willet J.B., Singer J.D., 1995, It’s déjà vu all over again: using multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis, “Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics” vol. 20, s. 41–67.
[52] Yamaguchi K., 1991, Event history analysis, Applied Social Research Method Series vol. 28, Sage Publications, Newbury Park-London-New Delhi.
[53] Yaqub S., 2000, Poverty dynamics in developing countries, Development Bibliography 16, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton.