Czynniki wpływające na stabilność pierwszych małżeństw w Polsce
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Published:
Dec 10, 2010
Keywords:
divorce, marital disruption, stability of marriage, first marriages, children
Main Article Content
Abstract
Marital stability is an important topic in studies on family because of its meaning for fertility and for the well-being of children and partners. The rise of the divorce rate observed in Poland since the second half of the 1990s poses a question about factors correlated with the risk of marital disruption. In the relevant body of research, one can distinguish between factors related to partners’ characteristics, features of the relationship, and the context. The paper starts with theoretical considerations on the correlates of divorce, backed with empirical fi ndings from studies for other countries. Next, the event history regression of fi rst marriages disruption is estimated. The model is specifi ed as a piecewise constant exponential model with proportional relative risks. The data used come from the Education, Family and Employment Survey from 2006.
Most of the results of this study are consistent with fi ndings for other countries: marriages with premarital children or entered into while expecting a child, as well as marriages of women brought up in bigger cities and those of employed women were less stable. The change of the educational gradient of divorce is an important fi nding – in the studies pertaining to the period before the 1990s the women with higher education showed a higher risk of divorce. In the current study, which refers to the period between the mid-1980s and 2006, marriages of women with highest education levels have the lowest risk of disruption. Surprisingly, marriages preceded by cohabitation do not have an elevated disruption risk compared to direct marriages. The impact of the presence of children on the disruption risk is lower than expected – only marriages with very small children (0-2 years old) are more stable, while parity and presence of older children do not make a difference, when compared with couples without children. In conclusion, some suggestions have been formulated regarding the data sources for the future research on the stability of unions.
Article Details
How to Cite
Styrc, M. (2010). Czynniki wpływające na stabilność pierwszych małżeństw w Polsce. Studia Demograficzne, ((157-158), 27–60. Retrieved from https://econjournals.sgh.waw.pl/SD/article/view/2584
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[8] Coppola L., Di Cesare M., 2008, How fertility and union stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain, „Demographic Research”, 18(4): 117-144.
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[20] Hoem B., Hoem J.M., 1992, The disruption of marital and non-marital unions in contemporary Sweden, [w:] Trussell J., Hankinson R., Tilton J. (red.), Demographic Applications of Event History Analysis, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
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[29] Liefbroer A.C., Dourleijn E., 2006, Unmarried cohabitation and union stability: testing the role of diffusion using data from 16 European countries, „Demography”, 43(2): 203-221.
[30] Lillard L.A., Brien M.J., Waite L.J., 1995, Premarital cohabitation and subsequent marital dissolution: a matter of self-selection, „Demography”, 32(3): 437-457.
[31] Lillard L.A., Waite L.J., 1993, A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption, „Demography” 30(4): 653-681.
[32] Liu G., 2002, How premarital children and childbearing in current marriage influence divorce of Swedish women in their fi rst marriages, „Demographic Research”, 7(10): 389-406.
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[34] Lutz W., Wils A. B., Nieminen M., 1991, The demographic dimensions of divorce: the case of Finland, „Population Studies”, 45(3): 437-453.
[35] Lyngstad T.H., 2006, Does community context have important bearings on the divorce rate?, VID Working Paper No. 6/2006, Wiedeń.
[36] Lyngstad T.H., Jalovaara M., 2010, A review of the antecedents of union dissolution, „Demographic Research”, 23(10): 257-292.
[37] Łobodzińska B., 1983, Divorce in Poland: its legislation, distribution and social context, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 45(4): 927-942.
[38] Mandes S., 2004, Forms of religiousness in Polish society, [w:] Jasińska-Kania A., Marody M. (red.) Poles among Europeans, Scholar, Warszawa.
[39] Marody M., 2004, The changing religiosity of Poles, [w:] Jasińska-Kania A., Marody M. (red.) Poles among Europeans, Scholar, Warszawa.
[40] Martin S.P., 2006, Trends in marital dissolution by women’s education in the United States, „Demographic Research”, 15(20): 537-560.
[41] Matysiak A., 2009, Is Poland really immune to the spread of cohabitation, „Demographic Research”, 21(8): 215-234.
[42] Matysiak A., Wrona G., 2010, Regulacje prawne tworzenia, rozwoju i rozpadu rodzin w Polsce, ISiD Working Papers Nr. 8(2010), Warszawa.
[43] McLanahan S., Adams J., 1989, The effects of children on adults’ psychological well-being: 1957-1976, „Social Forces”, 68(1): 124-146.
[44] Murphy M. J., 1985, Demographic and socio-economic infl uences on recent British marital breakdown patterns, „Population Studies”, 39(3): 441-460.
[45] Mynarska M., 2010, Individual Fertility Choices in Poland, Wydawnictwo UKSW, Warszawa.
[46] Mynarska M., Bernardi L., 2007, Meanings and attitudes attached to cohabitation in Poland: Qualitative analyses of the slow diffusion of cohabitation among the young generation, „Demographic Research”, 16(17): 519-554.
[47] Ono H., 1998, Husbands’ and wives’ resources and marital dissolution, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 60: 674-689.
[48] Oppenheimer V.K., 1997, Women’s employment and the gain to marriage: the specialization and trading model, „Annual Review of Sociology”, 23: 431-453.
[49] Perelli-Harris B., Sigle-Rushton W., Kreyenfeld M., Lappergard T., Keizer R., Berghammer C., 2010, The educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation in Europe, „Population and Development Review”, 36(4): 775-801.
[50] Qvist J., Uhlén M., Sjöberg I., 1995, Skilsmassor och separationer – bakgrund och utveckling, „Demografiska rapporter”, 1995:1, Statistics Sweden, Stockholm.
[51] Rydzewski P., 2010, Socjologiczne analizy rozwodów. Aspekty teoretyczne, empiryczne i metodologiczne, Wydawnictwo WSPA, Lublin.
[52] Sigle-Rushton W., 2010, Men’s unpaid work and divorce: reassessing specialization and trade in British families, „Feminist Economics”, 16(2): 1-26.
[53] South S.J., 2001, Geographical context and marital dissolution: does neighborhoods matter?, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 63(3):755-766.
[54] South S.J., Trent K., Shen Y., 2001, Changing partners: toward a macrostructural opportunity theory of marital dissolution, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 63(3):743-754.
[55] Svarer M., Verner M., 2008, Do children stabilize relationships in Denmark?, „Journal of Population Economics”, 21: 395-417.
[56] Szukalski P., 2010, Bilans małżeństw w powojennej Polsce, „Wiadomości Statystyczne”, 9(592): 26-35.
[57] Teachman J. D., 2002, Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors, „Demography”, 39(2): 331-351.
[58] Thornton A., 1977, Children and marital stability, „Journal of Marriage and Family”, 39, 3: 531-540.
[59] Van de Kaa D.J., 1994, The second demographic transition revisited: Theories and expectations, [w:] Beets G. i in. (red.) Population and family in the Low Countries 1993: Late fertility and other current issues, NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 30, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam: 81-126.
[60] Van de Kaa D.J., 1996, Anchored narratives: The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility, „Population Studies”, 50(3): 389-432.
[61] Van de Kaa D.J., 2001, Postmodern fertility preferences: From changing value orientation to new behavior, „Global fertility transition. Supplement to Population and Development Review”, 27: 290-338.
[62] Vaupel J., Yashin A., 1985, Heterogeneity’s ruses: some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics, „The American Statistician”, 39(3): 176-185.
[63] Vignoli D., Ferro I., 2009, Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates, „Demographic Research”, 20(4): 11-36.
[64] Wagner M., Weiss B., 2006, On the variation of divorce risks in Europe: findings from a meta-analysis of European longitudinal studies, „European Sociological Review”, 22(5): 483-500.
[65] Waite L.J., Lillard L.A., 1991, Children and marital disruption, „American Journal of Sociology”, 96(4): 930-953.
[66] White L.K., Booth A., 1985, The quality and stability of remarriages: the role of stepchildren, „American Sociological Review”, 50(5): 689-698.
[67] Wieczorek M., 1990, Demograficzne, społeczne i ekonomiczne uwarunkowania rozwodów w Polsce, Monografie i Opracowania, SGPiS, Warszawa.
[68] Wieczorek M., 1999, Zmiany procesu rozpadu małżeństw, [w:] Kotowska I.E. (red.), Przemiany demograficzne w Polsce w latach 90. w świetle koncepcji drugiego przejścia demograficznego, Monografie i Opracowania 461, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa.
[2] Baranowska A., 2011, Premarital conceptions and their resolution. The decomposition of trends in rural and urban areas in Poland 1985–2009, WP Nr 10(2011), Instytut Statystyki i Demografii SGH, Warszawa. (http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/isd/publikacje/ISID_WP_nonmarital_Baranowska.pdf)
[3] Becker G. S., Landes E. M., Michael R. T., 1977, An economic analysis of marital instability, „Journal of Political Economy”, 85: 1141-1188.
[4] Bongaarts J., Feeney G., 1998, On the quantum and tempo of fertility, „Population and Development Review”, 24(2): 271-291.
[5] Cartwright K.D., 2000, Shotgun weddings and the meaning of marriage in Russia: An event history analysis, „The History of the Family”, 5(1): 1-22.
[6] Cherlin A., 1978, Remarriage as an incomplete institution, „American Journal of Sociology”, 84(3): 634-650.
[7] Cherlin A., Furstenberg F., 1994, Stepfamilies in the United States: a reconsideration, „Annual Review of Sociology”, 20: 359-381.
[8] Coppola L., Di Cesare M., 2008, How fertility and union stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain, „Demographic Research”, 18(4): 117-144.
[9] De Rose A., 1992, Socio-economic factors and family size as determinants of marital dissolution in Italy, „European Sociological Review”, 8(1): 71-91.
[10] Duch-Krzystoszek D., 1998, Małżeństwo, seks, prokreacja, Wydawnictwo IFiS PAN, Warszawa.
[11] Fokkema T., Esveldt I., 2008, Motivation to have children, [w:] Höhn C., Avramov D., Kotowska I. (red.) People, Population Change and Policies. Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study, Springer, Berlin.
[12] Frejka T., 2008, Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe, „Demographic Research”, 19(7): 139-170.
[13] Giza-Poleszczuk A., Poleszczuk J., 2004, Partnership, marriage, and children – cultural differentiation of attitudes, [w:] Jasińska-Kania A., Marody M. (red.) Poles among Europeans, Scholar, Warszawa.
[14] Glenn N.D, McLanahan S., 1981, The effects of offspring on the psychological well-being of older adults, „Journal of Marriage and Family”, 43(2): 409-421.
[15] Goode W. J., 1962, Marital satisfaction and instability: A cross-cultural class analysis of divorce rates, [w:] Bendix R., Lipset S. M. (red.), Class, status, and power. Social stratification in comparative perspective, The Free Press, New York: 377–387.
[16] GUS, 2009, Rocznik Demograficzny 2008, Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Warszawa.
[17] GUS, 2010, Rocznik Demograficzny 2009, Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Warszawa.
[18] Heaton T. B., 1990, Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years, „Demography”, 27(1): 55-63.
[19] Härkönen J., Dronkers J., 2006, Stability and change in the educational gradient of divorce. A Comparison of seventies countries, „European Sociological Review”, 22(5): 501-517.
[20] Hoem B., Hoem J.M., 1992, The disruption of marital and non-marital unions in contemporary Sweden, [w:] Trussell J., Hankinson R., Tilton J. (red.), Demographic Applications of Event History Analysis, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
[21] Kneip T., Bauer G., 2009, Did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates in Western Europe?, „Journal of Marriage and Family”, 71(3): 592-607.
[22] Kotowska I.E, Jóźwiak J., Matysiak A., Baranowska A., 2008, Poland: fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?, „Demographic Research”, 19(22): 795-854.
[23] Kotowska I.E., Matysiak A., Styrc M. , Pailhé A., Solaz A., Vignoli D., 2010, Second European Quality of Life Survey: Family Life and Work, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
[24] Kravdal Ř., 1988, The impact of fi rst-birth timing on divorce: new evidence from a longitudinal analysis based on the Central Population Register of Norway, „European Journal of Population”, 4(3): 247-269.
[25] Kwak A., 1999, Divorce law reform and public opinion in Poland: the case of legal separation, „International Journal of Law, Policy and the Family”, 13: 213-224.
[26] Laskowski J., 1987, Trwałość wspólnoty małżeńskiej, OdiSS, Warszawa.
[27] Lesthaeghe R., 1995, The second demographic transition in Western countries: An interpretation, [w:] Mason K. O., Jensen A.-M. (red.) Gender and family change in industrialized countries, Oxford, Clarendon Press: 17-62.
[28] Lesthaeghe R., Surkyn J., 2002, New forms of household formation in Central and Eastern Europe: are they related to the newly emerging value orientations?, „Economic Survey of Europe”, 1: 197-216.
[29] Liefbroer A.C., Dourleijn E., 2006, Unmarried cohabitation and union stability: testing the role of diffusion using data from 16 European countries, „Demography”, 43(2): 203-221.
[30] Lillard L.A., Brien M.J., Waite L.J., 1995, Premarital cohabitation and subsequent marital dissolution: a matter of self-selection, „Demography”, 32(3): 437-457.
[31] Lillard L.A., Waite L.J., 1993, A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption, „Demography” 30(4): 653-681.
[32] Liu G., 2002, How premarital children and childbearing in current marriage influence divorce of Swedish women in their fi rst marriages, „Demographic Research”, 7(10): 389-406.
[33] Liu G., Vikat A., 2004, Does divorce risk depend on spouses’ relative income? A register based study of first marriages in Sweden in 1981-1998, MPIDR working paper No. WP-2004-010, Rostock.
[34] Lutz W., Wils A. B., Nieminen M., 1991, The demographic dimensions of divorce: the case of Finland, „Population Studies”, 45(3): 437-453.
[35] Lyngstad T.H., 2006, Does community context have important bearings on the divorce rate?, VID Working Paper No. 6/2006, Wiedeń.
[36] Lyngstad T.H., Jalovaara M., 2010, A review of the antecedents of union dissolution, „Demographic Research”, 23(10): 257-292.
[37] Łobodzińska B., 1983, Divorce in Poland: its legislation, distribution and social context, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 45(4): 927-942.
[38] Mandes S., 2004, Forms of religiousness in Polish society, [w:] Jasińska-Kania A., Marody M. (red.) Poles among Europeans, Scholar, Warszawa.
[39] Marody M., 2004, The changing religiosity of Poles, [w:] Jasińska-Kania A., Marody M. (red.) Poles among Europeans, Scholar, Warszawa.
[40] Martin S.P., 2006, Trends in marital dissolution by women’s education in the United States, „Demographic Research”, 15(20): 537-560.
[41] Matysiak A., 2009, Is Poland really immune to the spread of cohabitation, „Demographic Research”, 21(8): 215-234.
[42] Matysiak A., Wrona G., 2010, Regulacje prawne tworzenia, rozwoju i rozpadu rodzin w Polsce, ISiD Working Papers Nr. 8(2010), Warszawa.
[43] McLanahan S., Adams J., 1989, The effects of children on adults’ psychological well-being: 1957-1976, „Social Forces”, 68(1): 124-146.
[44] Murphy M. J., 1985, Demographic and socio-economic infl uences on recent British marital breakdown patterns, „Population Studies”, 39(3): 441-460.
[45] Mynarska M., 2010, Individual Fertility Choices in Poland, Wydawnictwo UKSW, Warszawa.
[46] Mynarska M., Bernardi L., 2007, Meanings and attitudes attached to cohabitation in Poland: Qualitative analyses of the slow diffusion of cohabitation among the young generation, „Demographic Research”, 16(17): 519-554.
[47] Ono H., 1998, Husbands’ and wives’ resources and marital dissolution, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 60: 674-689.
[48] Oppenheimer V.K., 1997, Women’s employment and the gain to marriage: the specialization and trading model, „Annual Review of Sociology”, 23: 431-453.
[49] Perelli-Harris B., Sigle-Rushton W., Kreyenfeld M., Lappergard T., Keizer R., Berghammer C., 2010, The educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation in Europe, „Population and Development Review”, 36(4): 775-801.
[50] Qvist J., Uhlén M., Sjöberg I., 1995, Skilsmassor och separationer – bakgrund och utveckling, „Demografiska rapporter”, 1995:1, Statistics Sweden, Stockholm.
[51] Rydzewski P., 2010, Socjologiczne analizy rozwodów. Aspekty teoretyczne, empiryczne i metodologiczne, Wydawnictwo WSPA, Lublin.
[52] Sigle-Rushton W., 2010, Men’s unpaid work and divorce: reassessing specialization and trade in British families, „Feminist Economics”, 16(2): 1-26.
[53] South S.J., 2001, Geographical context and marital dissolution: does neighborhoods matter?, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 63(3):755-766.
[54] South S.J., Trent K., Shen Y., 2001, Changing partners: toward a macrostructural opportunity theory of marital dissolution, „Journal of Marriage and the Family”, 63(3):743-754.
[55] Svarer M., Verner M., 2008, Do children stabilize relationships in Denmark?, „Journal of Population Economics”, 21: 395-417.
[56] Szukalski P., 2010, Bilans małżeństw w powojennej Polsce, „Wiadomości Statystyczne”, 9(592): 26-35.
[57] Teachman J. D., 2002, Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors, „Demography”, 39(2): 331-351.
[58] Thornton A., 1977, Children and marital stability, „Journal of Marriage and Family”, 39, 3: 531-540.
[59] Van de Kaa D.J., 1994, The second demographic transition revisited: Theories and expectations, [w:] Beets G. i in. (red.) Population and family in the Low Countries 1993: Late fertility and other current issues, NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 30, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam: 81-126.
[60] Van de Kaa D.J., 1996, Anchored narratives: The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility, „Population Studies”, 50(3): 389-432.
[61] Van de Kaa D.J., 2001, Postmodern fertility preferences: From changing value orientation to new behavior, „Global fertility transition. Supplement to Population and Development Review”, 27: 290-338.
[62] Vaupel J., Yashin A., 1985, Heterogeneity’s ruses: some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics, „The American Statistician”, 39(3): 176-185.
[63] Vignoli D., Ferro I., 2009, Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates, „Demographic Research”, 20(4): 11-36.
[64] Wagner M., Weiss B., 2006, On the variation of divorce risks in Europe: findings from a meta-analysis of European longitudinal studies, „European Sociological Review”, 22(5): 483-500.
[65] Waite L.J., Lillard L.A., 1991, Children and marital disruption, „American Journal of Sociology”, 96(4): 930-953.
[66] White L.K., Booth A., 1985, The quality and stability of remarriages: the role of stepchildren, „American Sociological Review”, 50(5): 689-698.
[67] Wieczorek M., 1990, Demograficzne, społeczne i ekonomiczne uwarunkowania rozwodów w Polsce, Monografie i Opracowania, SGPiS, Warszawa.
[68] Wieczorek M., 1999, Zmiany procesu rozpadu małżeństw, [w:] Kotowska I.E. (red.), Przemiany demograficzne w Polsce w latach 90. w świetle koncepcji drugiego przejścia demograficznego, Monografie i Opracowania 461, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa.