Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania płodności w Polsce. Próba kwantyfikacji
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Published:
Dec 14, 2008
Keywords:
Płodność, Uwarunkowania makroekonomiczne, Modele ekonometryczne, Fertility, Macroeconomic conditions, Econometric models
Main Article Content
Abstract
In the paper, an attempt to quantify interrelationships between the period total fertility rate in Poland in the years 1970-2005 and socio-economic determinants has been undertaken. In that respect, several possible explanatory variables suggested in various theoretical explanations of the fertility decline have been referred to. The overview of the theories resulted in the list of potential variables to be included into a linear model with the TFR as a dependent variable. Data availability defines the final set of 20 potential explanatory variables to be used in the model. Due to the presence of strong multicollinearity, a stepwise regression was applied. That method was supplemented by economic monitoring to ensure a sound interpretability of outcomes. Consequently, the final model included only four variables that influenced on the total fertility rate in Poland over the period under study: inertia in fertility, real wages, one variable related to social inequality and one linked to the pension system (i.e. to the replacement rate and the coverage rate ). The final model exhibits desirable statistical and economic features, and has been used for some projection exercises.
Article Details
How to Cite
Florczak, W. (2008). Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania płodności w Polsce. Próba kwantyfikacji. Studia Demograficzne, ((153-154), 82–111. Retrieved from https://econjournals.sgh.waw.pl/SD/article/view/2603
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[30] Gabos A., Gal R., Kezdi G., 2005, Fertility Effects of the Pension System and other Intergenerational Transfers, "PIE Discussion Paper Series", March 2005, Budapest.
[31] Greene, W.H., 1993, Econometric Analysis. Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
[32] Gujarati D., 1995, Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill, New York.
[33] Hill A., 1984, Female labor force participation in Japan: an aggregate model, "The Journal of Human Resources", Vol. 19/2: 280-287.
[34] Hoddinott J., 1992, Rotten kids or manipulative parents - are children old-security in western Kenya?, Economic Development and Cultural Change, No. 40: 545-65.
[35] Hondroyiannis G., Papapetrou E., 2002, Demographic Transition in Europe, "Economics Bulletin", Vol. 10, No. 3: 1-8.
[36] Iglicka K., 1992, Terytorialne zroznicowanie plodnosci w Polsce w swietle niektorych czynnikdw, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 4(110): 31-50.
[37] Jarque, C.M., Bera A.K., 1987, A test for normality of observations and regression residuals, ..International Statistical Review", Vol. 55: 163-172.
[38] Jaruga I., 1999, Bezposrednie determinanty plodnosci. Aplikacje modelu zagregowanej plodnosci Bongaartsa dla Polski dla lat 1991 i 1995, ..Studia Demograficzne", nr 2(136): 63-87.
[39] Jóźwiak J., 2006, Changes in fertility intentions between the years 2001 and 2006. Research report, SGH, Warszawa.
[40] Kohler H., Billari F., Ortega J., 2006, Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options, [w:] Harris F.R. (red.) The Baby Bust: Who will do the Work? Who will Pay the Taxes, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, MD: 48-109.
[41] Kirk D., 1996, Demographic Transition Theory, "Population Studies", Vol. 50, No. 3: 361-368.
[42] Kot M. (red.), 1999, Analiza ekonometryczna kształtowania się płac w Polsce w okresie transfonnacji, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa-Krakow.
[43] Kotowska I.E., 2004, Fertility and nuptiality in the CEE countries in the context of weakening families and a weakening state, [w:] T. Knijn, A. Komter (red.), Solidarity between the Sexes and the Generations: Transformations in Europe, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK: 111-130.
[44] Kotowska I.E., Abramowska A., 2003, Reconciliation of paid work and family in Poland, referat przedstawiony na EAPS European Population Conference, Warszawa.
[45] Kotowska I.E., Jóźwiak J., Matysiak A., Baranowska A., 2008, Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?, "Demographic Research", Vol. 19, article 22: 795-854.
[46] Kowalska I., Wróblewska W., 2008, Intergenerational changes in value systems in Europe, [w:] Hoehn Ch., Avramov D., Kotowska I.E. (red), People, Population Change and Policies: Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study, Vol. 1, "European Studies of Population", Springer: 157-175.
[47] Kumor P. 2006, Nierdwnomiernosc rozkladu plac, "Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 9: 1-12.
[48] Kumor P. 2008, Modelowanie wpływu nierównosci plac na wzrost gospodarczy, "Gospodarka Narodowa", nr 7-8: 43.
[49] Kurkiewicz J., 1998, Modele przemian płodności w wybranych krajach europejskich w swietle drugiego przejścia demograftcznego, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie, Krakow.
[50] Lesthaeghe R, Meekers D., 1986, Value Changes and the Dimensions of Familism in the European Community, "European Journal of Population", No. 2.
[51] Lesthaeghe R, Surkyn J., 1988, Cultural Dynamics and Economic Theories of Fertility Change, "Population and Development Review", No. 1.
[52] Lucas R. E., 1976, Economic policy evaluation: A critique, [w:] K. Brunner, A. Meltzer (red.), The Philips Curve and Labour Markets, Vol. 1, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam: 19-46.
[53] Macunovich D., 1996, Relative income and price of time: exploring their effects on U.S. fertility and female labour force participation, population and Development Review", Vol. 22 (Supplement): 223-257.
[54] Macunovich D., 1998a, Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature, "Joumal of Population Economics", Vol. 11: 53-111.
[55] Macunovich D., 1998b, Race and relative income/price of time effect on U.S. fertility, "Journal of Socio-Economics", Vol. 27, No. 3: 365^100.
[56] Masih A., Masih R., 2000, The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy, "Applied Economics", Vol. 32: 1617-1627.
[57] Matysiak A., 2005a, The sharing of professional and household, duties between Polish couples: preferences and actual choices, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 1: 122-154.
[58] Matysiak A., 2005b, Part time employment in Poland: family friendly employment form or a mere alterative for the low-skilled?, referat wygloszony na LOWER Annual Conference, Manheim.
[59] McDonald P., 2000, Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility, "Journal of Population Research", Vol. 17, No. 1: 1-16.
[60] Micevska M., Zak P., 2002, What accounts for the emergence of malthusian fertility in transition economies?, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, mimeo.
[61] Murphy M., 1992, Economic models of fertility in post-war Britain - a conceptual and statistical re-interpretation, "Population Studies", Vol. 46: 235-258.
[62] Muszyńska M., 2004, Family models in Europe in the context of women's status, ..Working paper on population, family and welfare", No. 6, Budapest: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Demographic Research Institute.
[63] Nashimura K, Zhang J., 1993, The old-age security hypothesis revisited, "Journal of Development Economics", Vol. 41: 191-202.
[64] Notestein EW., Taeuber I.B, Kirk D., Coale A.J., Kiser L.K., 1944, The Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union: Population Projections, 1940-1970, Geneva.
[65] Oeppen J., Vaupel J., 2002, Enhanced: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, "Science", Vol. 296/5570: 1029-1031.
[66] Panopoulou G., Tsakloglou P., 1999, Fertility and economic development: theoretical considerations and cross-country evidence, "Applied Economics", Vol. 31: 1337-51.
[67] Ronsen M" 2004, Fertility and public policies - evidence from Norway and Finland, "Demographic Research", Vol. 10, article 6: 143-170.
[68] Roszkiewicz M., 1991, Prdba zintegrowanego uj$cia ptodnos'ci, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 1(103): 13-24.
[69] Sanderson W., 1976, On two schools of the economics of fertility, population and Development Review", Vol. 2: 469-77.
[70] Van de Kaa D.J., 1987, Europe's Second Demographic Transition, "Population Bulletin", Vol. 42, No. 1, Population Reference Bureau, Washington.
[71] Van de Kaa D.J., 1988, The Second Demographic Transition Revisited: Theories and Expectations, [w:] G. Beets, J. Van den Brekel, R. CliquetR., G. Dooghe, J. de Jong Gierveld (red.), Population and Family in the Low Countries Data, Fertility and other Current Issues, NIDI/CBGS Publication, ioehn No. 30, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, Netherlands.
[72] Welfe A., 2004, Ekonometria, PWE, Warszawa.
[73] Whittington L., Aim J., Peters E., 1990, Fertility and the personal exemption: implicit pronatalistic policy in the United States, "The American Economic Review", June 1990: 545-556.
[2] Baibagysh A., 2002, Towards explanation of fertility in Kyrgystan, mimeo.
[3] Balcerzak-Paradowska B., Chton-Dominczak A, Kotowska I.E., Olejniczuk-Merta A, Topinska I., Woycicka I., 2003, The gender dimensions of social security reform in Poland, [w:] E. Fultz, M. Ruck, S. Steinhilber (red.), The Gender Dimensions of Social Security Reform in Central and Eastern Europe: Case Studies of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland,International Labour Office, Subregional Office for central and Eastern Europe Budapest: 187-315.
[4] Becker G., 1960, An economic analysis of fertility, [w:] A. Coale (red.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Princeton: 209-40.
[5] Becker G., 1965, A theory of the allocation of time,,.Economic Journal", Vol. 75: 493-517.
[6] Bledsoe C., 2004, Reproduction at the margins: migration and legitimacy in the New Europe, "Demographic Research", Vol. 3, article 3: 87-116.
[7] Bongaarts J., 1978, A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility, population and Development Review", Vol. 4: 105-32.
[8] Bongaarts J., 1982, The fertility-inhibiting effects of the intermediate fertility variables, "Studies in Family Planning", Vol. 13: 179-89.
[9] Caldwell J., Orubuloye I., Caldwell P., 1992, Fertility decline in Africa: a new type of transition?, "Population and Development Review", Vol. 10: 211-42.
[10] Chesnais J., 1996, Fertility, family and social policy in contemporary Western Europe, "Population and Development Review", Vol. 22, No. 4: 729-739.
[11] Cigno A., Casolaro L., Rosati F., 2003, The impact of social security on saving and fertility in Germany, FinanzArchive, Vol. 59: 189-211.
[12] Clark R., Burkhauser R., Moon M., Quinn J., Smeeding T., 2004, The Economics of an Aging Society, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford.
[13] Darnell, A.C., 1994, A Dictionary of Econometrics, Edward Elgar, Hants, England.
[14] De Bruijn B.J., 1999, Foundations of Demographic Theory: Choice, Process, Theory, Thela Thesis, Amsterdam.
[15] Domanski H., 2001, Social mobility in six East European nations, [w:] M. Ingham, H. Ingham, H. Domanski (red.), Women on the Polish Labour Market, European University Pres, Budapest: 111-145.
[16] Easterlin R., 1966, On the relation of economic factors to recent and projected fertility changes, ..Demography", No. 3: 131-153.
[17] Easterlin R., 1969, Toward a socio-economic theory of fertility, [w:] Fertility and Family Planning: A World view, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor
[18] Easterlin R., 1975, An economic framework for fertility analysis, ..Studies in Family Planning", Vol. 6: 54-63.
[19] Easterlin R., 1976, The conflict between aspirations and resources, "Population and Development Review", No. 2: 417-25.
[20] Easterlin R., Crimmins E., 1985, The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
[21] Easterlin R., Pollack R., Wachter M., 1980, Toward a more general economic model of fertility determination, [w:] R. Easterlin (red.), Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, University of Chicago Press, Chicago: 81- 150.
[22] Fihel A., 2005, Consensual unions in Poland: an analysis of the 2002 population census, "Studia Demograficzne" nr 2: 35-53.
[23] Florczak W., 2005, Stopien integracji kluczowych zmiennych makroekonomicznych gospodarki Polski w swietle wybranych testow, "Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 11: 1-15.
[24] Florczak W., 2008a, Efektywna podaz pracy a wzrost gospodarczv, ..Gospodarka Narodowa", nr 11-12: 21-46.
[25] Florczak W., 2008b, Wskazniki zrdwnowazonego rozwoju, "Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 3: 14-34.
[26] Florczak W., 2009a. Ekonometryczny model liczby urodzeh dla Polski. ..Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 6: 48-72.
[27] Florczak W., 2009b, Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania nierownosci placowych, " Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 1: 1-23.
[28] Florczak W., Welfe W., 2007, Modelling various aspects of siistainability: the case of Poland (theoretical outline), [w:] W. Welfe, P. Wdowinski (red.). Modelling Economies in Transition, Lodz: 53-76.
[29] Frątczak E., 2002, Proces starzenia sięludności Polski, ..Studia Demograficzne", nr 2(142): 3-28.
[30] Gabos A., Gal R., Kezdi G., 2005, Fertility Effects of the Pension System and other Intergenerational Transfers, "PIE Discussion Paper Series", March 2005, Budapest.
[31] Greene, W.H., 1993, Econometric Analysis. Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
[32] Gujarati D., 1995, Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill, New York.
[33] Hill A., 1984, Female labor force participation in Japan: an aggregate model, "The Journal of Human Resources", Vol. 19/2: 280-287.
[34] Hoddinott J., 1992, Rotten kids or manipulative parents - are children old-security in western Kenya?, Economic Development and Cultural Change, No. 40: 545-65.
[35] Hondroyiannis G., Papapetrou E., 2002, Demographic Transition in Europe, "Economics Bulletin", Vol. 10, No. 3: 1-8.
[36] Iglicka K., 1992, Terytorialne zroznicowanie plodnosci w Polsce w swietle niektorych czynnikdw, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 4(110): 31-50.
[37] Jarque, C.M., Bera A.K., 1987, A test for normality of observations and regression residuals, ..International Statistical Review", Vol. 55: 163-172.
[38] Jaruga I., 1999, Bezposrednie determinanty plodnosci. Aplikacje modelu zagregowanej plodnosci Bongaartsa dla Polski dla lat 1991 i 1995, ..Studia Demograficzne", nr 2(136): 63-87.
[39] Jóźwiak J., 2006, Changes in fertility intentions between the years 2001 and 2006. Research report, SGH, Warszawa.
[40] Kohler H., Billari F., Ortega J., 2006, Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options, [w:] Harris F.R. (red.) The Baby Bust: Who will do the Work? Who will Pay the Taxes, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, MD: 48-109.
[41] Kirk D., 1996, Demographic Transition Theory, "Population Studies", Vol. 50, No. 3: 361-368.
[42] Kot M. (red.), 1999, Analiza ekonometryczna kształtowania się płac w Polsce w okresie transfonnacji, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa-Krakow.
[43] Kotowska I.E., 2004, Fertility and nuptiality in the CEE countries in the context of weakening families and a weakening state, [w:] T. Knijn, A. Komter (red.), Solidarity between the Sexes and the Generations: Transformations in Europe, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK: 111-130.
[44] Kotowska I.E., Abramowska A., 2003, Reconciliation of paid work and family in Poland, referat przedstawiony na EAPS European Population Conference, Warszawa.
[45] Kotowska I.E., Jóźwiak J., Matysiak A., Baranowska A., 2008, Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?, "Demographic Research", Vol. 19, article 22: 795-854.
[46] Kowalska I., Wróblewska W., 2008, Intergenerational changes in value systems in Europe, [w:] Hoehn Ch., Avramov D., Kotowska I.E. (red), People, Population Change and Policies: Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study, Vol. 1, "European Studies of Population", Springer: 157-175.
[47] Kumor P. 2006, Nierdwnomiernosc rozkladu plac, "Wiadomosci Statystyczne", nr 9: 1-12.
[48] Kumor P. 2008, Modelowanie wpływu nierównosci plac na wzrost gospodarczy, "Gospodarka Narodowa", nr 7-8: 43.
[49] Kurkiewicz J., 1998, Modele przemian płodności w wybranych krajach europejskich w swietle drugiego przejścia demograftcznego, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie, Krakow.
[50] Lesthaeghe R, Meekers D., 1986, Value Changes and the Dimensions of Familism in the European Community, "European Journal of Population", No. 2.
[51] Lesthaeghe R, Surkyn J., 1988, Cultural Dynamics and Economic Theories of Fertility Change, "Population and Development Review", No. 1.
[52] Lucas R. E., 1976, Economic policy evaluation: A critique, [w:] K. Brunner, A. Meltzer (red.), The Philips Curve and Labour Markets, Vol. 1, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam: 19-46.
[53] Macunovich D., 1996, Relative income and price of time: exploring their effects on U.S. fertility and female labour force participation, population and Development Review", Vol. 22 (Supplement): 223-257.
[54] Macunovich D., 1998a, Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature, "Joumal of Population Economics", Vol. 11: 53-111.
[55] Macunovich D., 1998b, Race and relative income/price of time effect on U.S. fertility, "Journal of Socio-Economics", Vol. 27, No. 3: 365^100.
[56] Masih A., Masih R., 2000, The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy, "Applied Economics", Vol. 32: 1617-1627.
[57] Matysiak A., 2005a, The sharing of professional and household, duties between Polish couples: preferences and actual choices, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 1: 122-154.
[58] Matysiak A., 2005b, Part time employment in Poland: family friendly employment form or a mere alterative for the low-skilled?, referat wygloszony na LOWER Annual Conference, Manheim.
[59] McDonald P., 2000, Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility, "Journal of Population Research", Vol. 17, No. 1: 1-16.
[60] Micevska M., Zak P., 2002, What accounts for the emergence of malthusian fertility in transition economies?, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, mimeo.
[61] Murphy M., 1992, Economic models of fertility in post-war Britain - a conceptual and statistical re-interpretation, "Population Studies", Vol. 46: 235-258.
[62] Muszyńska M., 2004, Family models in Europe in the context of women's status, ..Working paper on population, family and welfare", No. 6, Budapest: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Demographic Research Institute.
[63] Nashimura K, Zhang J., 1993, The old-age security hypothesis revisited, "Journal of Development Economics", Vol. 41: 191-202.
[64] Notestein EW., Taeuber I.B, Kirk D., Coale A.J., Kiser L.K., 1944, The Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union: Population Projections, 1940-1970, Geneva.
[65] Oeppen J., Vaupel J., 2002, Enhanced: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, "Science", Vol. 296/5570: 1029-1031.
[66] Panopoulou G., Tsakloglou P., 1999, Fertility and economic development: theoretical considerations and cross-country evidence, "Applied Economics", Vol. 31: 1337-51.
[67] Ronsen M" 2004, Fertility and public policies - evidence from Norway and Finland, "Demographic Research", Vol. 10, article 6: 143-170.
[68] Roszkiewicz M., 1991, Prdba zintegrowanego uj$cia ptodnos'ci, "Studia Demograficzne", nr 1(103): 13-24.
[69] Sanderson W., 1976, On two schools of the economics of fertility, population and Development Review", Vol. 2: 469-77.
[70] Van de Kaa D.J., 1987, Europe's Second Demographic Transition, "Population Bulletin", Vol. 42, No. 1, Population Reference Bureau, Washington.
[71] Van de Kaa D.J., 1988, The Second Demographic Transition Revisited: Theories and Expectations, [w:] G. Beets, J. Van den Brekel, R. CliquetR., G. Dooghe, J. de Jong Gierveld (red.), Population and Family in the Low Countries Data, Fertility and other Current Issues, NIDI/CBGS Publication, ioehn No. 30, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, Netherlands.
[72] Welfe A., 2004, Ekonometria, PWE, Warszawa.
[73] Whittington L., Aim J., Peters E., 1990, Fertility and the personal exemption: implicit pronatalistic policy in the United States, "The American Economic Review", June 1990: 545-556.