The multi-state projection of Poland’s population by educational attainment for the years 2003–2030
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Published:
Dec 14, 2007
Keywords:
population projection, education attainment, fertility and mortality, differences by education
Main Article Content
Abstract
The first population projection by education level of the Poland’s population until the year 2030 is presented. The projecton is based on the multi-state projection model LIPRO developed by E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman (1991) and the LIPRO 4.0 software. The initial population as well as the model parameters were calculated for the year 2002 on the basis of the National Population Census data and the Labour Force Survey data. The projection was prepared under an assumption on the constant parameters up to the year 2030. The differences in mortality and fertility by education attainment were also taken into consideration.
The projection results for the years 2002–2006 were compared with the observed values to check the assumptions formulated. The projection results show that the increasing enrolment at the tertiary and secondary levels of education among the baby boomers born in the mid-1970s and the early 1980s will dramatically change the population composition by education in the next two decades. The percentage of people with tertiary education in the working age population (15-59/64) will increase from 12% in the year 2002 to 35% in the year 2030. Moreover, the analysis was performed to demonstrate changes in the life expectancy at birth (e0) and the total fertility rate (TFR) which can be attributed to the changing population composition by education and existing differences in mortality and fertility by education, to be kept in the future. Until 2030 the life expectancy increases by about 2.2 years for men and 2.0 years for women only because of the shifts in the education composition. On the other hand, this factor was found as not contributing to the fertility changes in the next years.
Article Details
How to Cite
Strzelecki, P. (2007). The multi-state projection of Poland’s population by educational attainment for the years 2003–2030. Studia Demograficzne, (2(152), 23–44. Retrieved from https://econjournals.sgh.waw.pl/SD/article/view/2606
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[2] Barro R.J., Lee J., 2000b, International Data on Educational Attainment – Human Capital Updated Files, http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html (access date: 28.11.2008).
[3] Becker G., Murphy K., Tomura R., 1990, Human capital, Fertility and Economic Growth. “The Journal of Political Economy”, Vol. 98, No. 5, 12–37
[4] Bolesławski L., 2004, Demographic projections of Poland 2003–2030. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[5] CSO, 2003a, Higher education institutions and their finances 2002. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[6] CSO, 2003b, Statistical yearbook of Poland 2002. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[7] CSO, 2003c, Life expectancy in Poland in the year 2002. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[8] CSO, 2003d, Ludność. Stan i struktura demograficzno-społeczna 2002, Central Statistical Office, Warsaw
[9] CSO, 2004a, Education in the school year 2003/2004. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[10] CSO, 2004b, Higher education institutions and their finances 2003. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[11] CSO, 2004c, Statistical yearbook of Poland 2003. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[12] CSO, 2005, Statistical yearbook of Poland 2004. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[13] CSO, 2006, Statistical yearbook of Poland 2005. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[14] CSO, 2007a, Statistical yearbook of Poland 2006. Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
[15] CSO, 2007b, Baza danych demografia, Tablice Statystyczne z Demografii za lata 1999–2006, http://www.stat.gov.pl/demografia/index.html (date of access: 30.10.2007).
[16] Cohen D., Soto M., 2001, Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3025, Center for Economic Policy Research, London.
[17] Florczak W., 2008, Kapitał ludzki w empirycznych modelach wzrostu. “Ekonomista”, No. 2/2008, 169–200.
[18] Goujon A., Wils A., 1996, The importance of Education in the Future Population. Global Trends and Case Studies on Cape Verde, Sudan and Tunisia. IIASA Working Paper WP-96-138, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
[19] Huisman M., Kunst E., 2004, Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality among elderly people in 11 European populations. “Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health”, Vol. 58, 468–475.
[20] Jóźwiak J., Kotowska I.E., Kowalska A., 2000, Procesy demograficzne, rynek pracy, edukacja, [in:] Ekonomiczne i społeczne efekty edukacji, Instytut Problemów Współczesnej Cywilizacji, Warszawa.
[21] Kotowska I.E., 1994, Population Dynamics in Poland, 1950–2050: Internal Migration and marital Status Changes. IIASA Working Paper WP-94-74, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg.
[22] Kotowska I. E., Sztanderska U., Wóycicka I., 2007, Aktywność zawodowa i edukacyjna a obowiązki rodzinne w Polsce w świetle badań empirycznych. Wyd. Scholar, Warszawa.
[23] Kupiszewska D., Kupiszewski M., 2005, A revision of traditional multiregional model to better capture international migration: The MULTIPOLES model and its application. CEFMR Working paper 10/2005, Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, Warsaw.
[24] Kupiszewski M., Bijak K., Saczuk K., Serek R., 2003, Komentarz do założeń prognozy ludności na lata 2003–2030 przygotowanej przez GUS. CEFMR Working Paper 3/2003, Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, Warsaw.
[25] Lutz W., Goujon A., Doblehammer-Reiter G., 1998, Demographic dimension in forecasting, [in:] Lutz W., Vaupel J., Ahlburg D. (eds.), Frontiers of Population Forecasting, “Population and Development Review”, Supplement to Vol. 24, 42–58.
[26] Lutz W. Goujon A., 2001, The World’s Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi-State population Projections by Educational attainment. “Population and Development Review”, Vol. 27, No. 2, 323–339.
[27] Mankiw N. G., Romer D., Weil D. N., 1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of economic Growth. “The Quarterly Journal of Economics”, Vol. 107, No. 2, 407–437.
[28] Matysiak A., Nowok B., 2007, Stochastic forecast of population of Poland, 2005–2050, “Demographic Research” Vol. 17, No. 11, 301–338.
[29] MEN, 2008, Co to jest klasyfikacja ISCED, http://www1.men.gov.pl/content/view/10446/ (date of access: 27.11.2008).
[30] Norman P., 1999, Putting Iterative Proportional Fitting on the research Desk. University of Leeds Working Paper 99/03, University of Leeds, Leeds.
[31] Paradysz J., 1981, Wielostanowa analiza demograficzna, „Studia Demograficzne”, No. 1/63, 75–89.
[32] Paradysz J., 1988, Demografia wielowymiarowa w Polsce, „Studia Demograficzne”, No. 2/88, 131–141.
[33] Preston S., Heuveline P., Guillot M., 2001, Demography. Measuring and Modelling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishers Ltd., Oxford.
[34] Rogers A., 1975, Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography. John Willey, New York.
[35] Rogers A. (ed.), 1980, Essays in multistate demography. “Environment and Planning A”, Vol. 12, No. 5, 485–622.
[36] Sakson B., 2002, Wpływ „niewidzialnych” migracji zagranicznych lat osiemdziesiątych na struktury demograficzne Polski, „Monografie i Opracowania”, nr 481, SGH, Warszawa
[37] Shkolnikov V., Andreev E., Jasilionis D., Leinsalu M., Antonova O., McKee M., 2006, The changing relation between education and life expectancy in central and eastern Europe in the 1990s. “Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health”, No. 60, 875–881.
[38] Shryock H.S., Siegel J.S., 1976, The Methods and Materials of Demography, Academic Press, New York.
[39] UN, 1958, Multilingual Demographic Dictionary. English Section, United Nations Population Studies, No. 29.
[40] Van Imhoff E., Keilman N., 1991, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in The Netherlands, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague.
[41] Van Imhoff E., 1994, LIPRO USER’S GUIDE Version 3.0. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague.
[42] UNESCO, 2006, International Standard Classification of Education ISCED 1997, http://www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/pdf/isced/ISCED_A.pdf (date of access: 27.11.2008).
[43] Willekens F.J., Drewe P., 1984, A multiregional model for regional demographic projection, [in:] H. ter Heide, F.J. Willekens (eds.), Demographic Research and Spatial Policy. The Dutch Experience, Studies in Population, Academic Press, London.
[44] Wróblewska W., 2006, Analiza umieralności w Polsce w latach 1970–2003. Dekompozycja zmian w oczekiwanym trwaniu życia noworodków, „Studia Demograficzne”, No. 1/149, 28–48.