Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : III kwartał 2020 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

Consumer confidence in the 3rd quarter of 2020 (the survey was conducted at the turn of July and August) rebounded after a sharp slump in the previous quarter. The IRG SGH consumer confidence indicator (IRGKGD) increased by 24.3 pts to -25.9 pts. However, it is still below the pre-crisis level. All components of the indicator grew, with the balance of future general economic situation in Poland soaring by 31.5 pts, and the balance of future unemployment declining by 32 pts. Financial situation of households improved (the balance rose by 24.3 pts). The balance of consumers' ability to save also increased, albeit to a lesser extent. Despite they grew, all the balances are still significantly lower than the respective year 2019 figures and the long-term averages. It needs, however, to be recognized that the survey has not yet taken into account the recent reintroduction of sanitary restrictions in poviats where the number of COVID-19 infections exceeded the critical threshold. Hence, it goes too far to saythat the improvement in consumer confidence in the third quarter is firmly founded. (original abstract)