Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : III kwartał 2022 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 3^rd quarter of 2022, the IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator equals to -38.3 pts, which is 5.3 pts down from the previous quarter figure. It is now by 21.7 pts lower than one year ago. All four components of the indicator decreased. Thus, there is no doubt that the sharp downturn in consumer sentiments that occurred in Q4 2021 has turned out to be the beginning of a fairly steady trend. There are many signs that several consecutive quarters of the deterioration of respondents’ financial situation (current and future), as well as of their assessments of prospects for the Polish economy, are mainly due to consumers’ concerns about macroeconomic conditions, particularly those related to rising inflation and unemployment. It is therefore all the more surprising that consumers’ inflation expectations have risen only slightly in the current quarter. The balance of responses to the question about the expected change in consumer prices stands at 62.9 pts, which represents a growth of a mere 0.9 pts compared with the second quarter of 2022. This change may be due to consumers’ persistent expectations that the measures taken by the Monetary Policy Council, which has been steadily raising interest rates since October 2021, will start to have an anti-inflationary effect in the months to come. Also closely related to households’ assessment of macroeconomic conditions in Q3 2022 are their declining interest in purchases of durable consumer goods, as well as – corresponding to that decline – an increase in the
savings rate to a record high level.