Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : IV kwartał 2022 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

The 4^th quarter of 2022 is the third consecutive quarter in which a decline in the IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator was recorded. It decreased by 5.3 pts to -43.6 pts, and is 10.1 pts down from the respective last year figure. As in Q3 2022, the survey reports a decline in all four components of IRGKGD. This time, however, the drastic change was primarily in households’ expectations about the labor market situation. The increase in households’ concerns about unemployment may have several causes, which include the possible projection of prolonged pessimism stemming from rising prices onto employment concerns, as well as growing fears about the potentially postponed response of the domestic labor market to the war in Ukraine and the resulting influx of labor into Poland. The value of IRGKGD indicator in Q4 2022 and its dynamics indicate quite clearly that the sharp deterioration in consumer sentiments that occurred a year earlier turned into a strong and persistent tendency. It is all the more surprising then that the balance of household inflation expectations fell by 3.2 pts to 59.7 pts, which is as much as 11.4 pts lower than in the record 4^th quarter of 2021. It appears that consumer sentiments may be affected by expectations that the Monetary Policy Council’s anti-inflationary measures will begin to have an effect in the coming months, further reinforced by the fact that after a period of uninterrupted rate hikes between October 2021 and July 2022, MPC went into the rate stabilization
mode at the level set in the middle of the year.