Kondycja gospodarstw domowych: III kwartał 2023 BADANIA KONIUNKTURY GOSPODARCZEJ INSTYTUTU ROZWOJU GOSPODARCZEGO SGH

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2023, as in the previous two quarters, IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator increased, this time to -17.9 pts, which is 7.0 pts higher than in the previous quarter and as much as 20.4 pts higher than in the same period of the previous year. This is also the highest value of the indicator in two years (in Q3 2021, the IRGKGD was -16.6 points). At the same time, it is part of an ongoing trend of improving household sentiments since the beginning of 2023, especially in comparison with the second half of 2022: in the first three quarters of 2023, the IRGKGD rose by a total of as many as 25.6 points. Moreover, in Q3 2023, as in the previous two periods, the values of all four components of the index improved. Thus, at the moment, households no longer anticipate an economic downturn, and the reversal of the pessimistic trend of 2022 can be considered relatively permanent. The improvement in households' assessments of their financial situation, observed throughout 2023, has been consistently accompanied over this period by an increase in optimism about the country's overall macroeconomic situation. The third quarter of 2023 was the third consecutive quarter in which respondents' pessimism in assessing the prospects of the domestic labor market decreased significantly. Over the period covered by the survey, the value of the balance of responses fell by as much as 10.4 points q-o-q, to 20.8 points, 17.7 points lower than a year earlier, 30.6 points lower than in Q4 2022 and the lowest since Q1 2020 (then: 15.7 points)...