Koniunktura w budownictwie : III kwartał 2018 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the third quarter of 2018, the construction confidence indicator (IRGCON) amounts to 24.0, lower by 4.6 points compared to the previous quarter and higher by 7.7 points compared to the third quarter of last year. In the current year, the trend of the CCI fluctuates - after a decline in the previous quarter, in the current one an increase is observed. The highest CCI is observed in the south-western and northern regions (37.3 and 27.4, respectively), and the lowest in the central and eastern regions (17.9 and 19.9, respectively). The separation of the central region from the macroregion of the Mazowieckie voivodship has revealed the relative weakness of the Łodzki and Świętokrzyski regions. Further weak results, especially for production, financial situation, employment and investment outlays, are noted in case of enterprises employing up to 20 people, including private companies employing up to 10 employees. Since mid-2016, the price trend of construction services has been growing. While the price increase has been observed mainly for large enterprises in the public sector, currently there are also increases in case of smaller enterprises in the private sector. In comparison with the previous quarter, there were significant changes in the layout of barriers limiting the production activity of construction works. In comparison with the second quarter of this year, the largest changes concern: high prices of raw materials and materials - the share of enterprises indicating this barrier increased by 14.3 percentage points, instability of legal provisions - an increase of 9.2 points and excessive tax burdens - an increase of 6.7 points. Currently, 66% of the enterprises often or very often face the problem of finding employees with high qualifications, whereas in the third quarter of the year, 61% of the companies had such problems, and four years ago 44%. Frequent or very common problems with finding employees with low qualifications concern 61% of enterprises, and a year ago 48% and four years ago 19% of companies. The problem is most acute within the group of construction of buildings (PKD 41, 78% companies declare that problem in this year, 43% a year ago and 13% four years ago).(original abstract)