Koniunktura w przemyśle : październik 2016 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In October 2016 the industrial confidence indicator (ICI) declined by 0.1 points to -1.6 pts. It is 0.9 pts down from the October 2015 figure. The indicator calculated for private firms dropped by 1.5 pts to -2.6 pts, and is lower than a year earlier by 1.3 points. The indicator calculated for public enterprises increased by 11.5 pts to +6.4 pts, the figure lower by 0.7 pts than the October 2015 one. Business situation worsened the most in manufacture of intermediate goods, the Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeship, and mid-size firms, employing 251-500 persons. The changes of the indicator and of the balances, noticed in October, followed the stationary trend we have been observing for ca. 2 years. Firms reported an increase in production, however, it was too small to invert the trend. The majority of the balances are negative and lower than in September and a year ago. According to the surveyed entrepreneurs, the general economic situation in the country is on the decline. They are pessimistic about the economy and their business prospects over the next months. If the seasonal pattern holds, one should expect business situation in the manufacturing industry to worsen in the following months. (original abstract)