Koniunktura w rolnictwie : IV kwartał 2016 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In October 2016 economic situation of Polish farms improving third time in a row. The IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 1.1 points, from -7.0 pts to -5.9 pts. The rise in the indicator was due to an increase in the smoothed money income indicator (by 2.3 pts, from -10.1 to -7.8 pts). The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, declined by 1.4 pts, from -0.8 to -2.2 pts). A money income growth in the 4th quarter of a year is not typical. So far it has been only noticed in periods of expansion. This time the increase in money income was effected by a rise in agricultural production and market prices of agricultural products, which have been observed for a couple of months. Higher money income, in turn, improved financial situation of farmers - their indebtedness dropped, and their ability to save increased. These changes were strong enough to invert the declining tendency of farms' economic situation that had lasted over two years. The agricultural indicator and its components are up from the respective year 2015 figures. However, farmers expect their money income to slide in the next quarter. This reflected in the fall of the confidence indicator. Seasonal slowdown in agricultural activity is coming up - farmers cut purchases of production inputs and investments. (fragment of text)