Koniunktura w rolnictwie : I kwartał 2017 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In January 2017 economic situation of Polish farms improved again. Although the IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 0.6 points only, from -5.9 pts to -5.3 pts, the betterment was surprising as it had never happened earlier that - due to negative seasonal factors (winter slowdown in agricultural activity) - the indicator grew in the first quarters. The growth of the indicator in the 1st quarter of 2017 was mainly a result of an extraordinary rise in farmers' optimism - the confidence indicator grew by 9.5 pts, from -2.2 pts to +7.3 pts. On the other hand, the smoothed money income indicator, which is the other component of IRGAGR, declined by 3.9 pts, from -7.8 to -1.7 pts). The fall of the income indicator was the lowest to be recorded since the beginning of the survey. The composite indicator, as well as its components, are now higher than one year ago by: 9.9, 10.3 and 9.5 pts, respectively. The improvement of economic situation of farms reflected in changes of the other balances - farmers' indebtedness dropped, and savings, purchases of agricultural production inputs and the percentage of farms willing to make investments increased. Summing up, such a good beginning of a year in the Polish agriculture has been recorded for the first time since RIED started to conduct the survey. The only dark spot in this picture is the worsening of financial situation farmers expect to come up over the next quarter. (fragment of text)