Koniunktura w rolnictwie : IV kwartał 2017 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

Opposite to expectations, business situation in the Polish agriculture in the 4th quarter of 2017 deteriorated. The composite agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) dropped by 2.8 pts to +4.5 pts. The decline was effected by a fall in the smoothed money income indicator, one of the components of IRGAGR, by 4.3 pts to +0.8 pts. However, farmers' sentiments are still high, and the confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, increased by 0.4 pts to +11.9 pts. The composite indicator and its components are now higher than one year earlier by, respectively: 10.4, 8.6 and 14.1 pts. The worsening of business situation is, to a large extent, of seasonal nature. Farmers anticipate a decrease in their incomes during winter slowdown in production, and these expectations reflect in the lower value of the smoothed money income indicator. The coming slowdown is clearly manifested in diminishing purchases of current means of agricultural production and investments.(original abstract)