Koniunktura w rolnictwie : I kwartał 2018 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2018 situation in the Polish agriculture deteriorated. The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) declined by 7.6 pts to -3.1 pts, and is down from trend now. To a large extent, the decrease was effected by a fall in the smoothed money income indicator, one of the components of IRGAGR. It dropped by 11.2 pts to -10.4 pts. The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR which represents farmers' sentiments, decreased only slightly (by 0.4 pts to +11.5 pts). Although the composite indicator and its components are still higher than one year earlier by, respectively: 2.2, 1.3 and 4.2 pts, the 1st quarter of 2018 was the second in the row to feature a downshift in annual change of the indicators. Hence, the worsening of agricultural situation is of seasonal nature but it is hardly not to notice that the growing tendency, which has developed over the last two years and driven the indicators to record highs, has ultimately ceased.(original abstract)