Koniunktura w rolnictwie : IV kwartał 2018 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2018 situation in the Polish agriculture deteriorated again. The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) declined by 6.6 pts to -9.3 pts, primarily due to a drop in the smoothed money income indicator (by 9.6 pts to -13.4 pts). The confidence indicator, another of the two components of IRGAGR, decreased too, but only slightly (by 0.5 pts to -1.1 pts). The slowdown in the agricultural activity has been continuing since the 3rd quarter of 2017 when IRGAGR reached its latest peak. The composite indicator and its components are, respectively, 13.8, 14.2 and 13 pts down from the respective last year figures. Negative cyclical factors are apparently reinforcing. Usually, the fourth quarter of a year is unfavourable for agricultural production, and nothing foreshadows any change in the pattern. Farmers reduced purchases of current assets, and their propensity to invest has fallen to the lowest level since the 2nd quarter of 2012. Farmers are very pessimistic about their future business prospects. Situation in the Polish agriculture is not expected to improve over the next quarter.(original abstract)