Koniunktura w rolnictwie : I kwartał 2019 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2019 situation in the Polish agriculture deteriorated again. The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) declined by 2.4 pts to -11.7 pts, due to a slump in income of farms (the smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of IRGAGR, dropped by 6.6 pts to -20 pts). On the other hand, farmers sentiments increased (the confidence indicator, another component of IRGAGR, grew by 5.8 pts to 4.7 pts). The slowdown in the agricultural activity has been continuing since the 3rd quarter of 2017 when IRGAGR reached its latest peak. However, in view of the latest protest by Polish farmers demanding compensation for losses incurred due to the outbreak of ASF (African Swine Fever), the rise in farmers sentiments was highly unexpected. The composite indicator and its components are, respectively, 8.6, 9.6 and 6.8 pts down from the respective last year figures. The annual declines are, however, smaller than one quarter earlier, what may forerun the cease of the declining tendency that have affected the Polish agriculture for the recent two years. Usually, the second quarter of a year sparks off recovery, and the upcoming quarter shouldn't be different, esp. taking into account that farmers raised their purchases of current assets and investment, and are optimistic about their future business prospects.(original abstract)