Koniunktura w rolnictwie : II kwartał 2019 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2019 situation in the Polish agriculture improved (for the first time since the beginning of 2018). The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) grew by 8.1 pts to 3.8 pts, due to an increase in farms' income - the smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of IRGAGR, rose by 9.2 pts to 11 pts - and in farmers' sentiments - the confidence indicator, another component of IRGAGR, increased by 5.8 pts to 10.5 pts. Though the composite indicator is now lower than one year ago (it amounted to -1.7 pts in the 2nd quarter of 2018), the quarterly increase of IRGAGR was nearly six times larger than the respective figure of 2018. It broke through the long-term average (equal to -10.2 pts), and its declining tendency, which began at the turn of 2017/2018, seems to come to an end. Farmers expect their financial situation to improve in the next quarter, and, on the whole, are more optimistic. The symptoms of sustainable growth in agricultural production, which emerged in the 1st quarter, enhanced. The third quarter of a year is usually a peak of agricultural activity, and this year should not be different.(original abstract)