Koniunktura w rolnictwie : III kwartał 2019 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2019 situation in the Polish agriculture improved again, however, the improvement was weaker than one quarter earlier. The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) grew by 4.8 pts to 1.0 pts, due to an increase in farms' income - the smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of IRGAGR, rose by 8.2 pts to -2.8 pts (in the 2nd quarter it increased by 9.2 pts). On the other hand, farmers' confidence diminished. The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, declined by 2.0 pts to 8.5 pts. For the first time since the beginning of 2017 the general indicator and its components increased on the annual basis. IRGAGR broke through the long-term trend line. It might suggest that its declining tendency, which began at the turn of 2017/2018, came to an end. Nevertheless, the increase in the agricultural activity was of seasonal nature. Farmers expect their financial situation to improve in the next quarter, and the majority of the balances grew on the quarterly and annual bases, but usually in the fourth quarter of a year agricultural activity slows down due to unfavourable weather, so, taking it all into account, it is hard to be optimistic about farming prospects in the near future.(original abstract)