Koniunktura w rolnictwie : III kwartał 2020 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2020 the agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 13.8 pts, making up in spades for what it lost in the 2nd quarter (11.6 pts). The increase is due primarily to a risein farmers' confidence, which was unprecedentedly high. Undoubtedly, both the slump in confidence in the 2nd quarter and the following upturn in the 3rd quarter are results of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the recovery was affected not only by the easing of coronavirus restrictions, but also by improvement of crops conditions following the drought which came up in the springtime, and good harvest. The percentage of farmers who assessed their prospects positive is twice higher than recorded in the 2nd quarter, and amounts to 27.9%, which is close record high. To a lesser extent the growth of IRGAGR was effected by an increase in money income of agricultural holdings, which - nota bene - was much larger than expected last quarter. In the result the indicator broke through the long-term average (-10 pts), soaring to -4.6 pts, and returned to its long-standing growth trend. (original abstract)