Koniunktura w rolnictwie : II kwartał 2022 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

The slump in the agricultural economy which began in the 4th quarter of 2021 continued in the 2 nd quarter of 2022. The agriculture confidence index (IRGAGR) dropped by only 0.5 pts to -23.7 pts, however, this time of a year it usually rises as a result of positive seasonal factors. Hence, the decrease of IRGAGR, though only slight, should be meant as a manifestation of a crisis. The indicator has taken the lowest number since the Great Recession. It is now lower than one year ago by 17.8 pts, and 13.9 pts down from the long-time average. The fall of IRGAGR is due to diminishing confidence of farmers who are getting more and more anxious about their economic situation. The main reason is the fact that production cost grows faster than revenues from sales of agricultural products. As a consequence farmers cut purchases of fodder, pesticides, plant protection products, and investment, which declined to record or close to record low numbers. Deteriorating financial situation made farmers less willing to finance production with debt. The percentage of farmers who are about to take a loan to cover costs of production hit the record low.(original abstract)