Koniunktura w rolnictwie : III kwartał 2022 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

The slump in the agricultural economy continued in the 3 rd quarter of 2022. Though the agriculture confidence index (IRGAGR) increased quarterly by 6.8 pts to -16.9 pts, it remains lower than one year ago (by 18.8 pts). The yearly change is lower than recorded in the previous quarter (by 1.0 pts), which is a sign of contracting rather than recovering from the recession. The rise of IRGAGR is due to a slight increase in farmers' confidence and their income from agricultural production. The increase, however, does not change the fact that farmers' opinions about recent situation in the sector are really bad, which is mainly a result of declining profitability of agricultural production, due to costs rising at the rate higher than the rate of growth of selling prices of crops. The survey balances of purchases of fodder and pesticides, as well as investments, increased, but they are still at very low levels. High interest rates discourage to take loans to cover production expenses. Farmers expect their situation to slightly improve in the next quarter, however, only 12% of them feel safe about their economic prospects.(original abstract)