Global Financial Crisis and Its Effects on Real Economies in the Light of Quantitative and Survey Data

Abstract

The paper discusses the effects of global financial and banking crisis of 2007-2008 on US and selected European economies. Due to its widespread incidence it has triggered substantial research challenge. The main area of our interest is the real side of economies. However, taking into account the fact that the crisis was accompanied by substantial breakdown of corporate and consumer confidence, we use quantitative as well as survey data in the research. We study fluctuations of main economic aggregates: output, consumption, industrial production and retail trade. Quantitative variables are matched with BTS and CS counterparts (confidence and sentiment indicators) to find out whether the survey data preceded quantitative one in signalling changes in real economies, whether synchronisation, the depth and the duration of the recession were different for each variable and country, and finally whether survey/quantitative variables were coherent in describing consequences of the crisis. We analyse cyclical fluctuations of selected variables and describe characteristics of the recession in each country in order to compare reactions of selected economies to the crisis. (original abstract)