Domino effect and the European Union's Common Commercial Policy

Abstract

The main objective of the study described in the article is to verify the domino effect when concluding regional trade agreements (RTAs) by the countries of the European Union with partners from outside EU. Conclusions, based on theoretical considerations, might be drawn about the motives of signing new RTAs. According to the domino theory (Baldwin 1995), the main reason for a reporter country to sign to a RTA is the trade diversion effect. It has been hypothesized that governments decide on signing a RTA with a partner country that had previously signed the trade agreements with other countries. In our empirical study we use a logit model for panel data, and the diversion effect is measured by the number of contracts signed by the partner country, the degree of cooperation (a type of agreement) and the volume of preferential trade. The existence of domino effect is confirmed by previous studies described in literature by other authors with respect to, among others, widening the European Union. However, the results obtained by us do not confirm the presence of the domino effect in the considered case of signing new RTAs with countries from outside EU. (original abstract)