Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

The general assessment of economic situation in Poland is based on the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG). In April 2015 it amounted to -4.7 pts. BARIRG increased quarterly by 12 pts, and was by 0.4 pt higher than the April 2014 figure. So, the barometer remained negative but was higher than in January. With this respect the 2nd quarter of 2015 did not diverge from the seasonal pattern noted so far. However, the barometer managed to break through the long term average which is -9.9 pts. Furthermore, the current figure is ca. 7 pts up from the 2nd quarters average. After the seasonal slowdown, usually observed in the 1st quarter of a year, now we can notice business improvement in the majority of the areas being surveyed by RIED. However, although the results of the April and May surveys are promising, it is hard not to see that positive cyclical factors are weak, and the seasonal recovery is impeded by unfavorable political circumstances. Economic agents, esp. producers, are less optimistic than usual. (original abstract)