Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In July 2015 it amounted to -9.1 pts. BARIRG quarterly decreased by 4.4 pts, and was by 4.2 pts lower than one year earlier. Usually, in July the barometer is negative but up from an April figure. This seasonal pattern did not hold in July 2015. Although the July 2015 figure is above the long-term average (-9.9 pts), it fell below the 3rd-quarters average. Clearly seasonal recovery noted in the 2nd quarter gave way to unexpected slowdown of business activity. It seems that seasonal factors failed, and, in addition, negative cyclical factors came up. The two made the mid-term downward trend evolve. Reduced business activity was mainly effected by business deterioration in the construction industry and, most of all, poor results of banks. (fragment of text)