Koniunktura w rolnictwie

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2015 economic situation of Polish farms continued to improve but at the much slower pace than usually in this time of a year. The IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 3.5 points, from -10 pts to -6.6 pts. The lower than expected increase of the indicator was caused by diminishing farmer's confidence, most probably affected by poor crop yield and profit forecasts due to summer drought. The confidence indicator, one of the two components of IRGAGR, declined by 6.6 pts, from +2.0 pts to -4.6 pts. The other one, the smoothed money income indicator, grew by 8.4 pts. Negative cyclical factors that have been observed since the beginning of 2014 still hold as the general indicator and its component are lower than one year earlier by, respectively: 7.4, 8.6 and 6.9 pts. The flattening line of cyclical component of IRGAGR indicates the mid-term downward tendency is coming to an end, however, results of the drought are hard to estimate at the moment and, as such, may postpone an upturn of agricultural activity. (fragment of text)