Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2015 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) amounted to -8.3 pts. It quarterly increased by 1.3 pts, and was by 0.8 pts higher than one year earlier. The negative value of BARIRG is not a surprise as it has been so for a long time. Due to the increase the indicator holds above the long-term average which equals to -9.9 pts. Usually, the barometer falls in the 4th quarters below the 3rd-quarter figure. This year the seasonal pattern of changes of BARIRG is different. This was mainly caused by improvement of business situation in the banking sector and, to a lesser degree, higher sentiments of consumers. (original abstract)