Koniunktura w rolnictwie

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2015 economic situation of Polish farms deteriorated. The IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) decreased by 4.3 points, from -6.5 pts to -10.8 pts. This was due to a decline in income. The smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of the agricultural indicator, fell by 6.2 pts, from -7.5 pts to -13.7 pts. The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, dropped by 0.3 pts only. That means farmers do not expect any significant changes of terms of agricultural production in the next quarter. The deterioration of economic situation was expected but to a lesser degree. Negative cyclical factors that have been observed since the beginning of 2014 still hold. The general indicator and its components are lower than one year earlier by, respectively: 6.4, 3.1 and 8.0 pts. Although the cyclical component of IRGAGR is signaling recovery, winter slowdown of agricultural production is about to come and, hence, an upturn of agricultural activity should be expected not earlier than by springtime. (fragment of text)