Koniunktura w rolnictwie

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2016 economic situation of Polish farms deteriorated. The IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) decreased by 4.4 points, from -10.8 pts to -15.2 pts. This was due to a decline in money income, greater than expected. The smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of the agricultural indicator, fell by 7.5 pts, from -13.7 pts to -21.2 pts. The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, grew by 1.9 pts. Hence, despite the decrease in money income farmers' sentiments are on the rise. The increasing confidence indicator lifted up the general indicator. The quarterly decline of IRGAGR is below the long-term average decrease for the first quarters (of the years 2000-2016), which is 6.4 pts. Having this in mind, and the fact that the general indicator and its components are only slightly lower than one year earlier, by 1.2, 0.9 and 1.4 pts respectively, it seems that negative cyclical factors are fading away. Shortly speaking, the deterioration of economic situation is not a surprise (as IRGAGR has been always on the decline in the first quarters of the last 16 years) but it is milder now due to rising confidence of Polish farmers. And, by looking at farms' expenditure one could see a sign of spring recovery coming soon. (original abstract)