Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2016 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) amounted to -3.4 pts. In comparison with the first quarter of 2016 and the 2nd quarter of 2015 it was higher by, respectively: 4.6 and 3.5 pts. On the whole, the second-quarter figures are negative but higher than the first-quarter ones due to positive seasonal factors. As far as this is concerned the 2nd quarter of 2016 does not deviate from the pattern of seasonality. The long-term average equals to -9.8 pts, and the second-quarters average is -8.6 pts. Hence, the current figure is higher than the two. In spite of good results of the April and May surveys firms and consumers are modestly optimistic about their economic situation over the next months, so there is no good reason to expect the seasonal recovery to briskly develop. (original abstract)