Koniunktura w rolnictwie

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2016 economic situation of Polish farms slightly improved. The IRG SGH agricultural indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 1.2 points, from -15.2 pts to -14.0 pts. This was due to the rise in the smoothed money income indicator, one of the two components of IRGAGR, by 3.0 pts, from -21.2 pts to -19.2 pts. The confidence indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, declined by 0.5 pts. Unexpectedly, farmers' sentiments collapsed, and the quarterly increase in their money income is only slightly higher than the 2000-2015 average. All the three indicators are down from their last year figures by 15.5, 3.3 and 4.0 pts, respectively. This suggests that negative factors which determine mid-term tendency in Polish agriculture may be expanding. The results of the April survey are bothering. It looks farmers strive to sustain short-term production capabilities, and their financial situation, weaker than expected one quarter earlier, prevent them from investments. They are a little bit pessimistic about their future prospects. (original abstract)