Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2016 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) amounted to -9.4 pts. It was 7.4 pts down from the 3rd quarter figure, and lower than one year earlier by 1.3 pts. The barometer has been negative for over last 8 years. The results of the October surveys followed the seasonality pattern, as slowdown of economic activity is typical at the time of a year. There has persisted high volatility of business situation in the banking sector. Changes of business tendencies in construction and trade have rather been coincident with the pattern, but the trend is unclear and hardly noticeable. In the manufacturing industry changes of the balances have been small, with ups and downs following each other highly frequently. Consumer sentiments are the only indicator that shows a growing trend. Summing up, in the 4th quarter the barometer, being an aggregate of the confidence indicators, did not change large enough to distract its trend and make a turn in the course of general business activity in Poland. (original abstract)