Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the beginning of 2017 the Polish economy slightly increased. The IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) amounted to -7.1 pts. It is 1.6 pts up from the October, 2016 figure, and higher than one year earlier by 3.3 pts. The long-term average grew too, and is now equal to -9.6 pts. The quarterly rise of the barometer was primarily effected by the expansion of trade and banking activity - the trade and banking confidence indicators increased by 14.5 and 12.1 pts, respectively, contributing 3.0 pts into the BARIRG growth. The consumer and agricultural confidence indicators rose too, but by 3.1 and 0.6 pts only. On the other hand, the confidence indicators of the manufacturing, construction and motor transport industries declined. Consumers and farmers are very optimistic, mostly due to the improvement of their financial situation, which is probably a result of launching the Rodzina 500+ program (money transfers to households). The optimism is shared by producers and banks, however, their confidence is not rather modest. (original abstract)