Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2017 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) quarterly increased by 2.7 pts to 2.6 pts. It is now by 11.3 pts higher than one year ago. The results of the 4th quarter's surveys are not typical as usually business activity slows down at the end of a year, manifested by a fall in BARIRG. The rise in the indicator was the third in a row, so it seems well founded to say that Poland enjoyed stable economic growth in 2017. The long-term average of the indicator is -9.2 pts now, and grew by 0.4 pts in the last year. BARIRG turned positive for the first time since 2008. The increasing trend is mainly contributed to strengthened confidence of consumers, farmers and construction companies, however, business activity in motor transport and, to a lesser extent, in banking and trade improved too. Nevertheless, the cyclical component of the indicator is signaling a downturn in the economy to come soon.(original abstract)