Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2018 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) declined by 1.3 pts to 1.3 pts. Usually, the first quarter of a year brings about a slowdown in economic activity, and though the 1st quarter of 2018 is rather typical in this respect, the seasonal slowdown in material production (excl. agriculture) is milder than usual, esp. in the manufacturing industry. It looks, however, that the uptrend the economy was humming along last year is no longer possible to keep up. A downturn is looming in construction and agricultural production, and private consumption. Manufacturing, motor transport and trade activity are continuously swinging around a flat trend, and it is hard to discern any sign of a change on the horizon. The barometer is up from the respective last year figure (8.4 pts) but its cyclical component reached a peak in the 2nd half of 2017 signaling a contraction in the economy. After two years of stimulating consumption by the government the economy is overheating now. Firms have complained about difficulties hiring skilled workers and about institutional conditions unfavorable for investment. There are no simple ways of raising productivity anymore. In the result, unit cost of production and inflation expectations have been heightened. The indicators of households financial health started to drop, and banks are reporting lower demand for their banking services. The economy is expected to slide back to its long-term growth path.(original abstract)