Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2018 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) increased by 3.6 pts to 3.3 pts. Usually, the barometer is negative at this time of the year, and higher than in the first quarters due to positive seasonal factors. In 2018 the seasonal effect has been strong enough to make BARIRG positive and lift it up to the highest figure over the last 10 years. Specifically, the effect is manifested in agriculture and construction, and to some extent in the manufacturing industry. Consumer sentiments grew too. Nevertheless, changes of the situation on the annual basis are rather unfavorable. Excluding households and the construction industry, the economy is under the negative impact of weak cyclical factors. The mix of positive seasonal factors and negative cyclical ones hampers the economy. Though there are some optimistic partial survey results for the 2nd quarter, general economic situation in the country is not expected to mark a big step forward in the coming months. The mid-term tendency is decreasing as the cyclical component of BARIRG is in the downward phase now.(original abstract)