Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2018 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) increased by 1.1 pts to 4.4 pts. Usually, the barometer is negative in the third quarters, but higher than in the second ones due to positive seasonal factors. This year BARIRG deviates from the pattern. Business situation in the manufacturing industry, construction and agriculture deteriorated, and consumer sentiments sharply declined. On the other hand, trade and banking activity increased, however, the increase in the trade and banking indicators did not compensate for the fall in the 2nd quarter. The barometer is now 10.7 pts up from the third-quarters average, and 13.3 pts from the mean. Nevertheless, the quarterly rise in BARIRG did not upturn its cyclical component which is still in the downward phase that started in January 2018.(original abstract)