Koniunktura w rolnictwie

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2018 situation in the Polish agriculture deteriorated. The agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) dropped by 1.0 pts to -2.7 pts, due to worsening farmers' sentiments. The confidence indicator, one of two components of IRGAGR, declined by 9,6 pts to -0.6 pts. The breakdown in the sentiments has been unexpected since usually the confidence indicator increases in the 3rd quarter of a year, and fall in the next one. Moreover, the slump was almost as strong as the one recorded in the time of the Great Recession. The smoothed money income indicator, the second component of IRGAGR, increased by 3.2 pts to -3.8 pts. The growth in incomes was, however, weaker than expected a quarter ago, due to low farm prices. Somewhat better than average situation was reported only by farmers cultivating perennial crops and breeding animals. The composite indicator and its components are, respectively, 12.1, 8.9 and 10 pts down from the respective last year figures. The downturn in agriculture (showed by the sloping-down cyclical component line) reinforced. Farmers' savings declined, indebtedness increased, purchases of current assets and investment in machinery diminished. The mid-term declining tendency is not expected to come to an end in the next quarter.(original abstract)