Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2019 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) decreased by 1.6 pts to -3.9 pts. It's now lower than one year earlier by 2.7 pts, but still above the long-term average (which is -8.6 pts). The decline of BARIRG was primarily effected by the decrease of the banking confidence indicator which contributed 2.7 pts to the fall of the barometer. The joint contribution of the motor transport, agricultural and construction confidence indicators amounted to -1.1 pts. On the other hand, business situation in the manufacturing industry and trade, as well as consumer sentiments, improved. Yet, the improvement was not strong enough to upturn the declining tendency in the economy, which has been developing for the last year. Negative cyclical factors keep holding on, and impede recovery, weak signals of which have been however spotted.(original abstract)